Boxing fans argue that styles make fights, but matchups in all sports have always determined how a given match will unfold.
We have a great NBA example on Tuesday when the Celtics visit the Jazz as 7-point favorites with a total of 240 points.
Boston is coming off an excellent season and currently sits in third place in the Eastern Conference despite playing without injured star Jayson Tatum. The main reason for that is an elite offense.
As play-by-play broadcaster Sean Grande recently shared on X, the Celtics ran the third-most efficient offense in NBA history during Sunday’s game. The performance differences are more favorable domestically, but their road rating is still quite impressive.
In that sense, as I’ve mentioned before in this space, Utah is much more dynamic at home. The Jazz’s offensive rating ranks eighth at home but 23rd on the road. That’s the main reason Utah is 12-6 against the spread (ATS) in home games.
Naturally, opponents are challenged by the altitude during a road trip. That’s happened routinely in Utah (and Denver) home games over the years, but the offensive splits have never been so one-sided.
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In terms of styles, this matchup also favors a high-scoring game. In home games, Utah plays at the second-fastest pace in the entire NBA – which is even faster in the first half. Boston is not among the fastest, but the pace is much more respectable in the first half than in the second half.
Jaylen Brown and the Celtics will be able to keep the pace due to Utah’s poor defense. The Jazz rank 29th in defensive efficiency and that is the same for both home and road games. Combine that with a strong attack at home, and that’s why 13 of their 18 home games have gone over the total.
I have an ATS record of 85-73-2 in this post sports section and my next game is Over the first half total.
The pick: Over 123.5 points (-108, DraftKings)
Why trust New York Post betting
Doug Kezirian is a contributor to the New York Post and has more than twenty years of experience in the gambling industry, including eleven years at ESPN as a host, columnist and betting analyst. He is also the rare personality who has documented success: a 14th-place finish in the 2023 Circa Million and the Las Vegas SuperContest ($37,000), two top-10 finishes in the 2022 William Hill College Football Challenge ($58,000) and also made headlines with a $297,000 win at the 2021 NFL Draft.
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