No qualifying points preparations were scheduled last weekend, but two are scheduled for Jan. 31: the Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park and the Withers Stakes at Aqueduct. The Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park has been moved to February 6.
Check out America’s Best Racing’s Triple Crown page to stay up to date with stories and statistics about the Road to the Kentucky Derby.
1. Ted Noffey
A day after being honored with an Eclipse Award as the 2025 2-year-old male champion, Ted Noffey was back at work at Palm Beach Downs for two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, running a half-mile in :50.81 in the company of Jan. 23. The wind clearly wasn’t meant to be demanding, as this was his first half-mile since capping a 4-for-4 campaign by winning the FanDuel Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Presented by TAA at age 2. His training rider kept him under a hammer blow the entire time. A three-time Grade 1 winner, two of which are on one route, he has proven himself in battle in ways that others on this list have not. The February 28 Coolmore Fountain of Youth Stakes is next.
2. Further delay
After his one-and-a-half-length victory in the Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes at Churchill Downs on November 29, in which he seemed to stall quite quickly during the gallop, trainer Brad Cox gave him a little break. Can understand the move, as the colt regressed in speed figures in the KJC from his 20-length romp in his first two-turn test while racing in a 1 1/16-mile race at Keeneland a month earlier. He resumed the breeze on January 25 with a 3 furlong breeze at 37 at Payson Park as Cox gets him back into the current. Probably three or four workouts away from being race fit.
3. Commandment
Brad Cox gave this one a few weeks off after his standout win in the 1-mile Mucho Macho Man Stakes on Jan. 3 at Gulfstream Park – a race that surprisingly doesn’t earn qualifying points on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, even though some other one-turn races do. This colt is still without points on the Kentucky Derby Leaderboard. His other win came in a second clear from seven furlong in the fall at Churchill Downs. A potential showdown with Ted Noffey could take place in the 1 1/16-mile Fountain of Youth, although there are always a number of other Derby options available.
4. Paladin
After winning his debut via disqualification, Paladin took the Remsen Stakes last fall to stamp himself as a bona fide Kentucky Derby contender. As for the Remses not having produced a Derby winner since Thunder Gulch wore the rosary in 1995, it’s best to chalk it up to bad luck. Some high-quality horses have participated, such as the 2023 race’s 1-2 finishers: the eventual Belmont Stakes presented by NYRA Bets winner Dornoch and the eventual winner of the Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic Sierra Leone. The latter – saddled by Paladins trainer Chad Brown – missed out in the Derby by a nose when finishing second to a ground-saving Mystik Dan.
5. Brant
While there are concerns about this colt at the Derby’s 1 ¼-mile distance after falling to third in the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, one thing that isn’t in question is Brant’s talent. He is a gifted horse, purchased last year as a youngster for $3 million and going on to win his first two starts, including the 2025 Del Mar Futurity. Fully expect him to have a successful campaign on short routes in California this year, but less enthusiastic about his prospects at 1 1/8 miles and beyond when compared to deeper setups.
6. Litmus test
Six-time Derby-winning trainer Bob Baffert has repeatedly said that extra distance suits this colt. He showed off a nice finish late last year to win the Los Alamitos Futurity, a race that 2025 Preakness Stakes winner Journalism captured in 2024. However, Litmus Test did not stand out in the same way in winning that race. Before that race, he finished third once and fourth twice in three Class 1 races out of 2 last year. He has competed in the Southwest Stakes at Oaklawn Park, a race postponed from Jan. 31 to Friday, Feb. 6, due to freezing conditions in Arkansas.
7. Incredible
This Riley Mott trainee will return to action for the first time since winning the Oct. 26 Street Sense Stakes at Churchill Downs when he competes in the Jan. 31 Holy Bull Stakes at Gulfstream Park. The short stretch that comes in handy in 1 1/16-mile races could prove to be a disadvantage for a horse with his late-running style, but at least he pulled the rail, which may have helped him keep his rivals in range. His five-furlong training in company in 1:02.30 on January 23 at Palm Meadows does not stand out as quickly, but he always traveled much easier than his colleague Whine Country and easily left him with a signal from his rider to break into a gallop.
8. Golden age
Curlin’s descendants consistently produce on dirt routes, and he was no exception in the Jan. 17 Lecomte Stakes at Fair Grounds. Despite having just one six-furlong victory to his name, he ran the 1 1/16-mile distance like a seasoned pro, leaving the opposition behind with a rally from the latter to improve to 2-for-2. With the Fair Grounds surface playing fast, his time of 1:44.98 gave him weak speed numbers across the board. There is clearly room for further development.
9. Strategic risk
Like other horses at Oaklawn Park in Arkansas (plus those boarded in Kentucky, Maryland, New York and other states), his training has been affected in recent days by the harsh winter weather. Practice was canceled on Jan. 27 at Oaklawn, just like the day before. One advantage he has from a fitness perspective is that he has maintained an active racing schedule, winning the FTBOA Florida Sire In Reality Stakes at Gulfstream on November 29 before adding the Smarty Jones Stakes on January 3 at Oaklawn. He is also entered to compete in the Southwest Stakes, which has been postponed from Saturday to Friday, February 6.
10. Almost
He and fellow Todd Pletcher trainee Class President posted the co-fastest half-mile breeze Jan. 24 at Palm Beach Downs, clocking in the distance: 48.59. That quick work suggests another top performance is on the way in Saturday’s Holy Bull Stakes for this newcomer, who has scored some fine triumphs at Gulfstream this winter. However, none of these victories came around two turns, so the Sacred Taurus should tell us a lot. His mother’s two victories came in sprints, although there are endurance elements elsewhere in his pedigree.
11. Canaletto
Making his debut in a maiden race Jan. 25 at Gulfstream, the long-riding colt impressed by showing manageable speed under Flavien Prat, a burst of speed when asked to increase his pace on the turn, and then a strong finish to score by eight lengths. The $1 million yearling clocked a mile in 1:36.28 and earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 89 and an Equibase Speed Figure of 94. A son of Into Mischief and a half-brother to winners She Can’t Sing and Sandman, he has pedigree as well as talent. These strengths will have to compensate for his limited experience if he is to have Derby success. It’s not impossible. Justify (2018) and Mage (2023) won the Derby after promising winter debuts as three-year-olds.
12. Blackout time
Returning to the published work tab to join the Derby Dozen rankings for the first time since he was a regulatory scratch at the Oct. 31 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Del Mar, he has the potential to rise further if his training goes smoothly. He still needs to take a five-furlong breeze to work his way off the vet’s list, along with completing medication tests and other protocols. With just his first three-eighths performance, we likely won’t see the Claiborne Breeders’ Futurity runner-up in action until March.
#Byron #Kings #Derby #Dozen #January