Brandon Moreno was favored over Tatsuro Taira as both chased title contention

In a key flyweight bout on the main card, former champion Brandon Moreno meets rising talent Tatsuro Taira in a three-round bout that will impact the division’s title picture. The UFC’s final pay-per-view before its transition to Paramount+ arrives at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on December 6, 2025 with UFC 323.

Brandon Moreno vs. Tatsuro Taira odds

Moreno comes in as a betting favorite with opening odds of +114 at some sportsbooks, implying a 44 percent chance of winning. Taira is at -135 with an implied win probability of 55 percent. The line positions Taira as a slight favorite despite Moreno’s pedigree as a former two-time champion. This reflects the competitive nature of the match and Taira’s momentum as an emerging contender. Line movement at sportsbooks, which also occur popular casino gameshas remained minimal since the odds opened.

The fight occupies an interesting place in the promotion’s title structure. Alexandre Pantoja, the current flyweight champion, defends his title in the co-main event against Joshua Van. While the UFC has not yet officially announced a title shot for the Moreno-Taira winner, but industry reports and fight commentary suggest the victor may earn Pantoja’s next shot at the crown. For Moreno, a win means a path back to the title after losses to Pantoja at UFC 290 and another setback against Brandon Royval in February 2024. For Taira, the win would secure his first career title shot.

The 31-year-old Mexican fighter, Moreno has won back-to-back fights against Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg via unanimous decision since his loss in Royval, re-establishing himself as a contender. He retains second place in the flyweight division. Taira, on the other hand, is 17-1 overall and currently ranked fifth or sixth in the flyweight rankings at age 25. The Japanese prospect’s only UFC loss came via split decision to Royval in October 2024, but he has since bounced back with a dominant submission victory over Hyun Sung Park at UFC Vegas 108 in August 2025.

Moreno scores significantly more strikes per minute, at about 3.96, compared to Taira’s 2.87, giving the veteran a striking volume advantage of about 38 percent. Moreno’s takedown defense stands at 64 percent, although he averages one successful takedown defense every two rounds. Taira compensates for this with a superior wrestling performance, averaging about one takedown per round.

The flyweight division remains wide open, resulting in decisive victories to determine the next challenger to Pantoja’s throne. Moreno has publicly stated that a win would make him eligible for title consideration. Taira has similarly expressed confidence that the win would warrant a title shot, potentially setting up an intriguing matchup if Pantoja retains his title against Van.

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