Keller is coming off a breakout year working out of the Cubs bullpen. The 30-year-old right-hander fired 69 2/3 innings of 2.07 ERA ball. By the end of the season, he emerged as Craig Counsell’s most trusted lever. Keller recorded 25 holds and a trio of saves while only giving up three leads all year. He was fantastic in the second half, allowing one run and striking out 35 batters over 27 2/3 frames. He picked up two more saves and a hold while pitching 5 2/3 innings of one-run ball in the playoffs.
Although the underlying numbers were not as dominant, Keller showed solid conditions across the board. He struck out 27.2% of opponents at a manageable 8% walk rate. Keller hit ground balls at a 56.5% clip, the 10th highest rate among relievers with 50+ innings. The only area of concern was the modest swinging strike rate of 10.8%, which was slightly below the league average of 11.5%.
Keller’s performance would clearly have many teams interested in him as a reliever. As we noted in our Top 50 Free Agents article, it made sense that some clubs would see him as a rotation conversion candidate. Keller has sufficient starting experience. He was a starter for most of his six seasons as a member of the Royals. The 6’5″ righty found some success early in his career as a grounder specialist in the back of the KC rotation.
His numbers dipped from 2021 to 2023, and he underwent surgery to correct thoracic outlet syndrome before the ’24 campaign. Keller didn’t find much success in limited MLB looks with the White Sox and Red Sox that year. Last winter he had to settle for a minor league contract with the Cubs. Keller looked rejuvenated in a relief role, earning a roster spot out of camp and quickly working his way to the top of the bullpen hierarchy.
While the thoracic surgery could raise fears among some clubs, there is reason for optimism if he returns. He has continued to use a five-pitch mix out of the bullpen. He had no trouble dealing with left-handed hitters this year, holding them to a .223/.293/.277 hitting with a 26% strikeout rate over 123 plate appearances. Keller doesn’t have impeccable command, but has shown enough control to be a starter into the middle innings. While he clearly wouldn’t be able to maintain last season’s average fastball velocity of 97.2 MPH in longer stints, it’s not unreasonable to imagine him sitting 94-95 over five innings.
MLBTR projected Keller to a three-year contract worth $36 million. That created the possibility that he could sign as a starter somewhere. Those types of moves have become commonplace in recent seasons. Garrett hook, Seth Lugo, Michael King, Clay Holmes, Reynaldo López And Jordan Hicks are some of the pitchers who returned to work after years of pitching in relief.
The Braves are reportedly making an offer Jeff Hofman same opportunity until a flagged physical message led them to walk away from a $45-48 million deal altogether. Lucas Weaver said in September that he would be open to offers as a starter. It is not without risk — Hicks and AJ Puk are among the pitchers who simply couldn’t make it due to command or injury issues — but even an outcome like the López or Holmes conversions would be a solid return on investment for a three-year contract worth between $12 and 14 million per year.
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