With Chris Bassitt and Max Scherzer also hitting the open market, the Blue Jays have at least one hole in their rotation to fill behind Kevin Gausman, Shane Bieber, Trey Yesavage and José Berríos heading into the 2026 season.
On the surface, Valdez appears to deserve the big term and dollar amount he’s likely to receive in free agency. The two-time All-Star ranks sixth among all starting pitchers in fWAR (20.6), fifth in innings pitched (973), tied for first in wins and 10th in total strikeouts (951) since the start of the 2020 season as a member of the Houston Astros.
However, Valdez has some slightly concerning trends in his profile that have taken shape over the past two seasons. His BB/9 has increased each year over the last two seasons, from 2.59 in 2023 to 2.81 in 2024 and 3.19 this past season. Valdez has consistently outperformed his projected ERA throughout his career, but has sometimes had trouble avoiding hard contact.
He finished the 2025 campaign in the 10th percentile in average exit velocity (90.8 mph) and in the ninth percentile in hard hit percentage (46.3%). The second half of the season wasn’t particularly kind to Valdez, as he posted a 5.20 ERA, 3.85 xERA, 7.86 K/9, and 3.42 BB/9 in 12 starts.
Valdez has always been an extreme groundball thrower, which in theory could fit in seamlessly with the Blue Jays’ excellent defensive play in the infield, led by Andrés Giménez and Ernie Clement.
Signing free agent pitchers is inherently risky. Teams almost always pay for past performance, hoping for a few more quality seasons before injury or performance lapses come into play.
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