No one is confusing Varsho with one of the power threats to baseball’s elites. He won’t hit more home runs than Juan Soto in 2026, even though his per-game pace last year would have said so if extrapolated over a full season. Still, one wonders if Varsho has unlocked something important in his swing that will translate into next season.
Varsho’s career high in home runs is 27, which he recorded in 2022 with the Arizona Diamondbacks before being traded to the Blue Jays. He hit 20 with a .389 slugging percentage in 2023 and went deep 18 times the following year.
So what changed so dramatically for Varsho last year?
Moment of the season. Grand slam, Daulton Varsho. #BlueJays
For starters, he ran the ball 15.9% of the time in 2025, almost 10% more than the 6.2% he recorded last year. He went from being in the 31st percentile to being in the same group as Rafael Devers and George Springer.
Varsho also recorded a career-high 40.3% hard hit rate last year, leading to the highest average exit speed (139.9 km/h) of his career. He accomplished this while hitting fly balls more than half the time and ground balls less often than ever before.
His expected slugging percentage of .494, while not quite on par with his actual mark, suggests that what he did in 2025 was no fluke. His bat speed jumping to a career-high 75.6 mph under new hitting coach David Popkins also bodes well for his future performance.
However, there are some serious warning signs in Varho’s profile. He’s a career .227 hitter who struck out 28.4% of the time last year while chasing heavily. He also doesn’t walk much, as evidenced by his career low on-base percentage of .284. His offensive game doesn’t have much value if he doesn’t hit the ball over the fence at an elite clip.
PRESENTED BY VIVID CHAIRS
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