Bitcoin Poised for Short-Term Rally as Price Dips Below $101,000 Before Mining Costs, Analyst Says

Bitcoin fell below the breakeven point of $101,000, a level that historically corresponds to the low point in the cycle and has led to recovery expectations.

Bitcoin (BTC) fell below its estimated breakeven level of $101,000 on January 12, even as on-chain data and macro news fueled discussion about whether the market is gearing up for a recovery.

The move has divided opinion within the crypto community, with some analysts pointing to early signs of renewed demand, while others warning that fragile technicals still leave room for further downsides.

On-Chain data and macro noise determine the short-term picture

Several X analysts argued that Bitcoin’s pullback may be masking improving underlying conditions. According to Wise Crypto, there appear to be capital flows in the chain low point and are now strengthening while the price is below mining costs, a zone that has often coincided with longer-term lows in previous cycles.

Macro developments also added another layer of complexity, with reports from the New York Times stating that federal prosecutors had opened an investigation into Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell related to an interest rate policy dispute and a $2.5 billion headquarters renovation. Although this news introduced political uncertainty, Bitcoin’s price showed a small positive move, with VanEck’s Matthew Sigel noting that the price rose about 1% without any change in the fundamental issuance schedule.

From a technical perspective, sentiment is more mixed. EGRAG CRYPTO pointed out that Bitcoin’s monthly RSI has fallen below the key 60 level, putting momentum in a neutral to slightly bearish zone, although the indicator has started to curl higher. Other traders, such as Crypto Chase, warned that hesitation around the $92,000 to $93,000 range could indicate a lack of urgency among buyers.

A difference between price and health in the chain

Bitcoin’s price has been relatively stable, rising 1% over the past 24 hours, but continued to fall almost 1% this week. On a monthly basis, the asset is modestly higher, although it remains about 27% below its October 2025 peak of around $126,000.

Nevertheless, the on-chain metrics cited by CryptosRus suggest the market doesn’t yet resemble a bicycle top. Measures such as the Puell Multiple and MVRV have increased, but far from levels that previously marked overheated conditions, indicating a mid-cycle lull rather than outright exhaustion.

You might also like:

Still, more cautious voices, including CryptoQuant contributor Sunny Mom, argue that the loss of key weekly moving averages above $101,000 has shifted the structure to the downside, with heavy resistance forming near $96,000.

For now, BTC is at a crossroads between improving on-chain signals and uncertain technical levels. The primary bullish thesis rests on the combination of Bitcoin’s proximity to the cost base for mining companies, quietly returning spot fund flows, and a macro environment where political pressure on the Federal Reserve could weaken the dollar’s position.