Bitcoin (BTC) is once again trading within a narrow range, with price swings contained despite shifting macro signals and a new debate over whether the cryptocurrency’s long-observed four-year cycle still applies.
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As traders react to mixed messages from the Federal Reserve, institutional flows and increasing caution in risk markets, analysts remain divided over whether Bitcoin’s latest consolidation signals stability, or a deeper shift in the way the asset behaves.
BTC's price trends downwards on the daily chart. Source: BTCUSD on Tradingview
Analysts wonder if the cycle is over
A growing number of major companies are now claiming this Bitcoin could well go beyond the rhythm driven by the historical halving. Investment firm Bernstein said in a recent note that assets are in an “elongated bull cycle,” indicating minimal outflows from ETFs despite a nearly 30% correction.
The company has raised its 2026 price target to $150,000, projecting a potential cycle peak of $200,000 in 2027 and maintaining a long-term estimate of $1 million for 2033.
Cathie Wood, CEO of ARK Invest, echoed this view, saying that institutional adoption reduces the likelihood of the sharp 75-90% declines seen in previous cycles. Grayscale has also suggested that Bitcoin could break the four-year pattern, predicting renewed strength in 2026.
Bitcoin is currently trading between $90,000 and $93,000 depending on location, with recent intraday swings highlighting a lack of strong directional conviction.
Fed signals keep markets cautious
The The Federal Reserve’s interest rate cut by 25 basis points initially increased risk sentiment, but a shift to cautious, data-dependent language quickly reversed momentum.
Bitcoin and Ethereum fell following the announcement, with BTC falling below $90,000 at one point as traders reassessed the macro backdrop. Liquidity remains tight, contributing to the choppy movements of major crypto assets.
Analysts note that Bitcoin’s inability to maintain gains despite the weaker dollar and softer Fed policy reflects continued uncertainty. Several commentators say BTC should remain above $90,000 to avoid increasing bearish pressure, while a break above $94,500 could reopen a path to $100,000 if inflows improve.
Derivatives and on-chain data indicate rising bearish sentiment
Options and indicators on the chain also indicate caution. Traders have increased their bearish options positions, with the put/call ratio turns positive ahead of a significant decay period. More than $500 million in crypto liquidations occurred within 24 hours, reflecting the increased volatility.
On-chain data shows waning bullish momentum. The Bitcoin Bull Score Index has fallen to zero, and realized losses suggest further downside is possible. Analysts warn that despite previous buy-the-dip patterns, current numbers do not yet reflect the levels typically associated with market bottoms.
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While Bitcoin continues to trade within a tight range, the broader debate remains unresolved. Whether the four-year cycle fades or is simply interrupted may depend on how markets digest macro uncertainty, institutional flows and the next wave of economic data.
Cover image of ChatGPT, BTUSD chart from Tradingview
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