Ripple’s XRP is testing historic support that caused the 2018 peak

XRP is trading around $2.07 as analysts track a 21-month EMA rebound that mirrors 2017, with resistance ahead and mixed market signals.

XRP returns to 21-month EMA support

In 2017, XRP broke out of a multi-year triangle held above the 21-month EMA and then rose sharply in early 2018. Analyst JD pointed out that the token now shows an almost identical pattern. It has broken out of a major triangle and is currently bouncing at the same 21-month EMA.

The setup has raised expectations that XRP could follow the same path as before. Currently, the price movement suggests that the asset could be preparing for another strong move if the pattern continues. JD explained,

“In 2017 we broke out of the triangle, consolidated for over a year, retested 21 million EMA… and then went parabolic in January 2018.”

Strong rally fades at resistance

XRP recently rose from less than $1.90 to $2.41 in a week, driven by increased ETF inflows and reduced token supply on exchanges. However, the rally lost momentum and the value has since fallen back to $2.07 at the time of writing. The 24-hour volume is over $2.88 billion, with the price down slightly over the past 24 hours and down almost 3% over the past week.

Analyst ChartNerd noted“$XRP has a task in hand,pointing to strong resistance levels ahead. Both the Weekly 20 EMA and the Gaussian channel midline are near $2.26. These indicators are now acting as resistance.

“If we fail to impose/break them, we resort to support for several months,” she added.

Meanwhile, so is XRP respond to the former triangle support, now tested as resistance. Another analyst, Javon Marks, said that XRP’s current structure matches its 2017 breakthrough. At the time, the token exceeded its measured move target. “XRP could be heading towards its measured move target above $16.5,he said, which would represent a 663% move from current levels.

$XRPin the 2017 breakout structure, not only rose to the measured displacement target, but also well above it.

With almost exact structure replication and breakout taking place, pic.twitter.com/YoT7KNnX4k

— JAVON⚡️MARKS (@JavonTM1) January 11, 2026

You might also like:

He also suggested that a similar breakout could push the token even higher than these projections. This view is based on structure alone, without taking into account external market forces. The path ahead depends on how XRP handles resistance and whether volume continues to support the upside.

Market conditions remain mixed

CryptoWZRD noted that XRP’s daily candle closed indecisive. “A move above the resistance at $2.1000 is bullish territory.‘, the analyst saidadding that Bitcoin’s next move could determine the direction of the market.

There are also signs of caution. Ali Martinez pointed out a possible doji formation in gravestones, which can indicate weakness. At the same time, whale activity has decreased. A report from CryptoPotato said large XRP transfers jumped during the price surge but have since declined. This could indicate that there is less participation from large holders.