Bitcoin has fallen below the $90,000 level, pushing several on-chain profitability measures into negative territory. Market data now points to increasing downward pressure after a long period of strong gains.
Analysts explain that this current trend resembles the early stages of previous BTC bear markets. And for now, the focus has shifted to key support zones as selling pressure increases.
Onchain metrics point to early bear market conditions
Bitcoin’s recent price action reflects a clear shift in near-term market structure. According to data from Trading viewthe consolidation is lower. As such, this has drawn attention to price levels below current margins. Onchain indicators also suggest that investor behavior is changing as gains weaken.
CryptoQuant reported that Bitcoin holders have moved from realizing profits to capturing losses for the first time in more than two years. Moreover, net realized gains and losses have become negative.
For context, net profit realized tracks the gain or loss when coins are moved on-chain. This statistic dropped to 69,000 BTC over the past four weeks, reflecting declining market strength.
Image source: CryptoQuant
Market commentators at CryptoQuant said Bitcoin holders started realizing net losses for the first time since October 2023. Falling peaks in realized gains since March 2024 indicate slowing price momentum, as before bull cycle fades. The annual net realized profit has also fallen sharply in recent months.
Bitcoin is losing key cost basis levels as bearish signals multiply
Data shows that annual realized profits have fallen to around 2.5 million BTC, down from 4.4 million BTC in October. Similar levels last appeared in March 2022, during an extended market decline. Analysts noted that the onchain’s current earnings behavior aligns with early bear market conditions.
Previous cycles show similar patterns, although analysts warned that earnings numbers can give false signals during sideways markets. A similar situation occurred during the 2021 to 2022 transition from bull to bear. Realized gains peaked in early 2021 and reached lower highs before turning negative ahead of the 2022 decline.
With this in mind, several analysts are now predicting a broader bear market phase this year. Some forecasts even suggest that the OG coin could bottom below $58,000 if sellers gain continued momentum.
Interestingly, technical signals have reinforced bearish expectations in recent sessions. As noted by Crypto market commentator Titan, Bitcoin recently flashed a bear market signal on higher time frames.
Image source: X/Titan from Crypto
A bearish MACD crossover on the two-month chart supports this view. Furthermore, historical data shows that similar situations often preceded a decline between 50% and 64%.
Strong selling activity has already sent Bitcoin down about 9% from its 2026 high near $97,930. Price action broke through several key support levels during the decline. One big loss occurred on a 75th percentile cost basis, near $92,940.
Bitcoin Support Zones in Focus as Price Tests the $89,000 – $90,000 Range
Glass junction noted that Bitcoin is now trading below the cost basis of 75% of circulating supply. Such circumstances indicate increasing distribution pressure among holders. The risk has shifted further down unless prices reach that level again.
Technical traders also look for trendline support near current prices:
- Analyst Merlijn The Trader observed that Bitcoin is testing rising support between $89,000 and $90,000.
- A break below could send the price back to a low near $84,000.
- Onchain cost basis data shows heavy buyer activity between $80,000 and $84,000.
- About 941,651 BTC were acquired in that zone in the past six months.
Image source: Glass junction
Many traders consider the OG crypto’s current trading area to be the strongest short-term support. But another key support level is just below that range, around $80,000. As noted by onchain observers, approximately 127,000 BTC had previously been accumulated at that price.
Technically, a broader downtrend could resume assuming the firstborn coin breaks below this level.
Analysts say weak demand for derivatives and the shedding of long-term holders add further downside risk. Meanwhile, rising BTC transfers to exchanges could increase supply in the near term. And in such scenarios, these factors could put further pressure on prices as market sentiment cools.
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