Bitcoin could trade at a discount if a Quantum Fix is not implemented
As Quantum Computing continues to develop, many in the Bitcoin community have expressed concerns about what a breakthrough could mean for the cryptocurrency. Founder of Capriole Investments Charles Edwards has been one of those voices.
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Last week, Edwards gave a presentation on the Quantum Threat to Bitcoin at the Global Blockchain Show in Abu Dhabi. The analyst also shared some insights about X.
According to Edwards, there is a 34% chance that Quantum will undermine BTC crypto over the next three years. Based on this, Capriole’s founder today granted a 34% discount to BTC. “Given a two- to three-year timeline to implement the solution, this is the current discount rate,” Edwards said. “And it’s growing. Every day.”
The probability has been estimated using seven different sources that provide timelines for breakthroughs in Quantum Computing. If Capriole’s calculations hold true, the Quantum threat has a greater than 50% chance of impacting blockchain technology by 2030.
What will happen in the scenario where Quantum Computing eventually unlocks Bitcoin’s cryptography? Even if wallets are well secured today, there are still old wallets that can be vulnerable. Some of the BTC supply has been dormant for years, and with a Quantum breakthrough it could potentially find its way back into circulation.
The most popular example of dormant holdings are, of course, those attributed to the cryptocurrency’s pseudonymous creator, Satoshi Nakamoto. Satoshi’s wallets contain a total of 1,096,354 BTC, which at today’s prices is worth a whopping $95 billion. All these coins potentially being dumped on the market would obviously have a negative effect on the Bitcoin price. Not only because of its magnitude, but also because of the loss of confidence that such an event would result.
Given the threat, Capriole has repeatedly emphasized the need to implement a solution as quickly as possible. So far, the community has not reached a consensus on when and what the solution should be.
In an X afterMichael Saylor, co-founder and chairman of Strategy, has also spoken out on this topic. “Quantum computing will not destroy Bitcoin, but rather harden it,” Saylor wrote. “The network upgrades, active coins migrate, lost coins remain frozen.” In this scenario, the coins associated with Satoshi and other early miners will become inaccessible forever.
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Edwards has warned that if a fix is not implemented in time, the currency could face the biggest bear market in history. “If we don’t have a solution implemented by 2028, I expect Bitcoin to cost less than $50,000 and continue to decline until there is a solution,” said the Capriole founder.
BTC price
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading around $86,500, down 5.7% in the past week.
Featured image from Dall-E, Capriole.com, chart from TradingView.com
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