Bitcoin Accumulation Patterns Show Late-Stage Cycle Maturity, Not Final End: CryptoQuant

Dolphins have been the main accumulator in this cycle, so their demand structure could continue to fuel this bull cycle.

Bitcoin’s current price movement continues to raise questions about whether the bull cycle is coming to an end. However, accumulation patterns across different cohorts of BTC investors indicate that the cycle is in late stages of maturity and not definitively over.

According to one report from CryptoQuant, on-chain data shows that while bitcoin’s short-term momentum is weakening, its long-term structural demand remains intact. This is confirmed by accumulation patterns in the dolphin cohort, the investor group consisting of exchange-traded funds (ETFs), companies and large BTC holders.

Late adulthood or cycle end?

CryptoQuant analysts said the dolphin cohort is the anchor of this bull cycle and has become the most important group to monitor. These addresses hold balances of 100 to 1,000 BTC and are now responsible for the majority of the circulating bitcoin supply (26%, or 5.16 million BTC). Their counterparts, including the whale, fish and humpback whale cohorts, account for only 21.32%, 21.57% and 14.06% of the circulating BTC supply.

Since the majority of BTC investments are concentrated in this cohort, their behavior can significantly influence the direction of the market. Analysts found that the dolphin cohort’s growing accumulation is in line with past upward price movements. Rather, a delay preceded the distribution or correction phases.

In the current cycle, dolphins have been the main accumulator, increasing their balance by more than 681,000 BTC by 2025. Their counterparts, on the other hand, have recorded net declines in their holdings. This dynamic shows that institutions and large investors have absorbed the supply from smaller investors, maintaining demand for this cycle.

Dolphins are still piling up

As other investor cohorts reduce their holdings, the bull cycle increasingly depends on the continued accumulation of dolphins. So if the rate of dolphin accumulation slows, the market could move from an expansion to a consolidation phase.

The annual growth of the dolphin cohort must remain above the 365-day moving average for the bull cycle to maintain its upward trend. As it stands now, dolphin holdings are rising at an annual rate of 907,000 BTC, well above the 365-day moving average of 730,000 BTC. Unfortunately, the cohort’s 30-day balance sheet growth has fallen below the 30-day moving average, indicating weakening demand. Analysts noted that the slowdown in balance sheet growth coincides with bitcoin’s recent price correction from its all-time high above $126,000.

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Nevertheless, the market structure suggests that demand for dolphins has not deteriorated; therefore, the bull cycle may be in its later stages and not at its end. Bitcoin needs an accelerated monthly accumulation rate to reach new highs.