The Chilukki is held on unpaved terrain over a mile around one bend and as such has attracted a field of both sprinters stretching out and runners with two bends reducing the distance. This year’s race attracted a field of seven horses, with the highlight being a homebred Godolphin #7 Ragtimea Class 3 winner at this track in September, and fast #2 Shred the Gnarwho will make her first start since going seven lengths under the Twin Spiers in a 1 1/6-mile race on the May 2 Longines Kentucky Oaks undercard.
Ragtime has never run a bad race with seven starts, winning three times by one second and one third for Hall of Fame trainer Bill Mott. In her two starts earlier this fall, she overcame a slow start to win the seven-furlong, Grade 3 Dogwood Stakes presented by Resolute Racing by an extension of 2 ¼ lengths. After that, she couldn’t overcome another rough start, but still rallied strongly to finish third, beaten by half a length, in the Grade 2 Lexus Raven Run Stakes at Keeneland. The Raven Run was also held at seven furlongs – and for that matter all Ragtime starts to date have been held at that “tweener” distance. Ragtime, a daughter of Belmont Stakes winner Union Rags out of Class 2-winning sprinter Burmilla, should have no problem covering an extra eighth of a mile on a track she already excelled over. The filly raced with blinders in her first three races, but had them removed for the Dogwood and Raven Run, where she had a poor start. She gets blinders for the Chilukki again and seems ready for a recovery attempt.
Shred the Gnar is shaping up to be a formidable winning threat in this race if she can regain her early May form after a six-and-a-half month layoff. She controlled the pace and took a visually impressive victory on the Oaks undercard in what was only her third career start, following a very good runner-up debut and then a stunning mile-and-a-half victory at Gulfstream Park. The Into Mischief filly was withdrawn from the DK Horse Acorn stakes in June due to signs of lameness and was given ample time to regain health. She has been working steadily in recent weeks, but it is difficult to look beyond trainer Brian Lynch’s 0-for-15 record last year, with horses coming after a break of more than 180 days.
Shred the Gnar should look to win this race from the front under excellent pace jockey Luis Saez, who has been on board for all her starts. The main filly that may complicate that strategy will be #6 One magical Phillywho is coming off a pace-pressing one-length victory in a 6 ½-furlong optional claims race at Keeneland in her first start for red-hot trainer Brendan Walsh.
Limited to a $30 budget, I bet Ragtime to win at odds of 2-1 or better and then use her as my main horse in an exacta bet and a trifecta bet. I’ll bet a straight exacta with Ragtime over Shred the Gnar, another straight exacta for a lower amount with Ragtime over One Magic Philly, and then I’ll put Ragtime in a trifecta over those two second-place horses plus closers #1 Drive And #3 Literate in third place. (Usage The ABR betting calculator to create your bets)
Betting strategy for a $30 budget:
$10 profit on Ragtime
What to say during the betting window:
Churchill Downs, Race 3, $10 win on #7
$6 exactly, Ragtime of Shred the Gnar
What to say during the betting window:
Churchill Downs, Race 3, $6 exacta #7 with #2
$2 exactly, Ragtime of One magical Philly
What to say during the betting window:
Churchill Downs, Race 3, #7 with #6
$2 trifecta, Ragtime of Shred the Gnar and One Magic Philly of Impel, Shred the Gnar, Literate and One Magic Philly ($12)
What to say during the betting window:
Churchill Downs, Race 3, $2 trifecta #7 with #2, #6 with #1, #2, #3, #6
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