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Players focus on the best ball ADP early
WR Zay Flowers, Baltimore Ravens
- Underdog ADP: 41.3
- Draft Kings ADP: 41.0
Zay Flowers is having the best season of his career. Last year he converted 118 targets into 86 receptions, 1,211 receiving yards and five touchdowns. He finished as the WR7. This performance came even as Lamar Jackson missed five games and didn’t play like his typical MVP self after returning from a hamstring injury in Week 9.
Flowers at his current ADP is surrounded by other receivers who are either the clear WR2 on their own teams like Jameson Williams (Underdog ADP: 40.45; DraftKings ADP: 43.2) or receivers in ambiguous roles for the upcoming season like Luther Burden III (Underdog ADP: 48.3; DraftKings ADP: 49) and Emeka Egbuka (Underdog ADP: 45.3; DraftKings ADP: 48.6). Flowers stands out as the clear WR1 on his team. Even if the Ravens expand their receiver room in free agency or the NFL Draft, no one they acquire will challenge Flowers for this role. He is an absolute steal at this ADP.
RB Blake Corum, Los Angeles Rams
- Underdog ADP: 94.6
- Draft Kings ADP 100.7
Blake Corum started the 2025 season as the clear backup to Kyren Williams on the Rams. However, as of Week 7, Corum averaged a 33.2% share of the Rams’ backfield. He also saw 20 carries in the red zone during this 11-game stretch. He was an RB2 or better in four of those eleven weeks.
Corum’s value at ADP this year is twofold. First, he provides a solid production floor with a potential peak week upside if he can score a touchdown in the Rams’ high-powered offense. Secondly, he is a good emergency player in the event of a Kyren Williams injury. While the Rams would also likely use last year’s fourth-round pick Jarquez Hunter, if Williams were to miss games, Corum would likely have the first opportunity to get the starring role. In Best Ball, where you don’t have to guess when to start Corum, he makes for a great running back selection, especially in a Zero-RB build.
QB Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (provisional)
- Underdog ADP: 140.6
- DraftKings ADP 144.9
Kyler Murray suffered a foot injury in Week 5 last year and was placed on Injured Reserve. He never played for the Cardinals again and was reportedly benched for Jacoby Brissett, despite never returning from injury. While Murray did not have a weekly finish in the top 12 at the quarterback position through his five games playing, he has a track record of fantasy success. Aside from last season, Murray has finished among the top 12 among quarterbacks in fantasy points per game every year since 2019.
Murray is currently the QB24 in ADP on Underdog and the QB26 in ADP on DraftKings. This will certainly change once his landing spot crystallizes. The Cardinals are expected to release Murray before the start of the new league year, and he will immediately become the top free agent quarterback in a league lacking quality starting options. Murray will be a starter this season, and once he finds a team, his ADP will likely jump multiple rounds. This makes him a screaming value at the moment.
TE TJ Hockenson Minnesota Vikings
- Underdog ADP: 187.5
- DraftKings ADP 188.3
Last year, TJ Hockenson played nearly a full season for the first time since 2023 when he tore his ACL and MCL. Unfortunately, he had his worst fantasy season since his rookie year, averaging just 7.5 fantasy points per game. This was in large part due to the ineffectiveness of the Vikings offense as a whole, attributed to JJ McCarthy’s putrid quarterback play. Hockenson’s yards per route dropped to 1.15 in 2025, down from 2.03 in 2024.
Hockenson has several chances to become a value at this current ADP. First, the Vikings could acquire a veteran quarterback to compete with JJ McCarthy for the starting spot. Rumors Suggest Possible Kirk Cousins ​​Return to Minnesota; Hockenson had his best fantasy football seasons with Cousins ​​in 2023 and 2022. Additionally, Hockenson has been rumored to be a possible target for the Vikings. If the Vikings move on from the veteran TE, he could find a better landing spot to expand his fantasy production.
Players fade early Best ball ADP
RB Quinshon Judkins, Cleveland Browns
- Underdog ADP: 54.5
- DraftKings ADP 50.4
Quinshon Judkins had a great rookie season, finishing as the RB26 overall and RB25 with a career-best 80.9 points added. However, this production was based on volume. Judkins was not efficient with his touches, averaging just 2.66 yards created per touch (52nd among qualified running backs). He also suffered a brutal right leg injury in Week 16, breaking his fibula and dislocating his ankle.
While he is expected to be ready for the start of the NFL season, Judkins returns to a Browns team that has a new offensive system, an uncertain quarterback situation and none of their 2025 offensive players currently under contract. Currently the RB23 on Underdog and the RB22 on DraftKings, Judkins is drafted above where he finished last season. Unfortunately, there’s little to support this climb up the board. The Browns offense will likely be as bad as last season and possibly worse. I’d rather fill needs at other positions in the fifth round than select Judkins; he’s a volume-based play that stinks of an RB deadzone selection.
TE George Kittle, San Francisco 49ers
- Underdog ADP: 120.4
- Draft Kings ADP 113.7
Like Judkins, Kittle suffered a season-ending injury last season, tearing his Achilles tendon in the NFL playoffs. Reports have recently surfaced suggesting Kittle may not return at best until week 5. Even before his season-ending injury, Kittle only played in 11 games last season. When healthy, however, he was the TE3 in fantasy points per game, averaging 14.7 points per game.
Kittle could be a target for the 49ers if he returns to the lineup. However, the 49ers could look to add another receiver through free agency or the draft, which could eat into Kittle’s target stock. Even assuming Kittle comes back as himself, his current ADP is a bit high for a player with an unexpected return date. While I don’t avoid Kittle in checkers, I only tend to take him on certain builds and when he slides past ADP. I’d happily pair him with Brock Purdy or an already-selected elite tight end, or switch to a three-tight-end build with Kittle as the first selection and cheap veteran types like David Njoku, Dalton Schultz and TJ Hockenson to cover Kittle’s potential absence early in the season.
WR Tyreek Hill, free agent
- Underdog ADP: 145.0
- Draft Kings ADP 116.2
Tyreek Hill was released by the Dolphins last week and is currently a free agent. He also suffered a dislocated knee in Week 4 of last year and currently has no timetable for his return to action. Entering his age-32 season, Hill is not only dealing with a serious injury, but also with Father Time to return to fantasy relevance. He finished as the WR29 in fantasy points per game in 2024 and averaged just 13.4 fantasy points per game last season.
Hill’s knee injury reportedly included a torn ACL and additional damage to the ligaments and tendons. The fact that Hill will not return to play football this season is within reasonable bounds of the outcome. His ADP in both formats is rich and assumes not only a return to play this year, but also a return to fantasy dominance. As a selection on Underdog, he has a bit more shelf life if he falls; if someone willingly clicks on him at ADP on DraftKings, they should stack him with a call to a gambling addiction helpline.
WR Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars
- Underdog ADP: 150.0
- Draft Kings ADP 150.4
Travis Hunter reached double-digit fantasy points just once last season, scoring 24.1 fantasy points in Week 7. He then suffered a knee injury in practice leading up to Week 8 and missed the rest of the season. Reports this offseason suggest Hunter will be mainly used for defense when he is healthy to return to action.
Now Parker Washington, Brian Thomas Jr. and Jakobi Meyers starting in three-wide receiver sets for the Jaguars, Hunter appears to be a sub-package player on offense at best this season. A peak week or two for Hunter isn’t out of the question, even if he sees a limited role in the offense. However, if we expect this inconsistent production, he should start about three laps later than he currently is. I’ll take him if he loses a round in ADP and I have Trevor Lawrence on my roster and I want to add a stack. Furthermore, he is a player I avoid.
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