The expert selection is back for the Australian Open semi-finals: Jannik Sinner vs. Novak Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz vs. Alexander Zverev. A panel of three teams makes their predictions for Friday’s action in Melbourne.
(4) Novak Djokovic vs. (2) Jannik Sinner
Ricky: Unless there is voodoo magic on Djokovic’s opponents and another gets knocked down, this match should be a one-way street. The only way the 38-year-old Serbian can seemingly progress is to get another free pass – as he did from Jakub Mensik in the fourth round (walkover) and from Lorenzo Musetti in the quarter-finals (retirement). Djokovic was crushed by Musetti and a foot blister did not help. Now the 24-time major champion must face a much tougher opponent in Sinner, to whom he has lost five times in a row. Recent meetings haven’t even been competitive. Sinner rolled in straight sets at both the French Open and Wimbledon last season, the latter via a 6-3, 6-3, 6-4 beatdown. The two-time defending AO champion has dropped just one set this fortnight, and that was when he got into physical danger (before the roof closed) against Eliot Spizzirri in round three. He must not lose a set on Friday. Sinner in 3: 6-3, 7-5, 6-2.
Cheryl: The head-to-head confrontation alone does not accurately reflect the reality of this match. The stat sheet says Sinner has a slight 6-4 lead, which is technically true. But a closer look reveals Djokovic’s dominance early in Sinner’s career, but only two wins in eight attempts since 2023. As if that wasn’t alarming enough for the Serbian, the matches have tended to become less competitive as Djokovic moves further away from his prime and Sinner settles more firmly into his prime. Of course, there’s also the reality that Djokovic isn’t playing well… or to put it more precisely, he’s not actually playing at all. Last weekend he defeated Botic Van de Zandschulp in straight sets hasn’t won a set since. He received a walkover from Jakub Mensik in the round of 16 and was two sets behind Lorenzo Musetti when the Italian retired with a leg injury. I would be remiss not to mention that during his third round match, Sinner was pinched in a pretzel from his limbs by the extreme heat and had some luck of his own when they stopped play to close the roof. But since he hasn’t had any problems since then, it’s probably not relevant to the conversation. Barring the totally unexpected, this one goes to Sinner. Again. Sinner in 4: 6-4, 5-7, 6-3, 7-5.
Pete (Tennis insight): Ironically, both Sinner and Djokovic are very fortunate to have even reached the semi-finals in the first major of the year. The two-time defending champions were given a lucky opportunity when the heat index forced the closure of the Rod Laver Arena roof in his third round match against American Eliot Spizzirri. With the exception of that match, it was business as usual for the No. 2 seed. Djokovic has not won a set since his third-set tiebreak in the third round against Botic van de Zandschulp, when a walkover took him to the quarter-finals and then back to the semi-finals when Lorenzo Musetti could not advance early in the third set despite winning the first two. Sinner has won five in a row in this H2H series and six of the last seven, and Djokovic has managed to win just one set in their last five meetings. Expect the 10-time AO champion to compete at his best. While that alone usually gets the job done against most of the ATP field, at this point in his storied career with Sinner on the other side of the net, that won’t be nearly enough. Sinner in 3: 7-5, 6-3, 6-4.
(1) Carlos Alcaraz vs. (3) Alexander Zverev
Ricky: This should be the more competitive of the two semifinals, mainly for one reason: Zverev’s serve. In five matches at Melbourne Park, the German hit 80 aces, only six double faults and was broken only seven times. Only that shot can keep him in this match. Unfortunately for Zverev, Alcaraz also serves great (also broken seven times) and is clearly a much better all-court player. After the Spaniard did much better at the grass and clay Grand Slams in 2023 and 2024, his hard-court skills have returned. Alcaraz rolled to the 2025 US Open title (including a win over Sinner in the final) and has been nothing short of dominant in Melbourne so far. The world No. 1 did not drop a set en route to the semi-finals and was especially impressive in a 7-5, 6-2, 6-1 defeat of a previously red-hot Alex de Minaur on Tuesday. Alcaraz wins…but it’s never easy for him against Zverev (6-6 H2H). Alcaraz in 4: 6-7(5), 6-3, 6-4, 6-4.
Cheryl: If you pay attention to the seedings, you will notice that the semifinals are contested by the top four seeds. It’s pretty unusual for it to actually turn out this way, but here we are. This match has the potential to bring some excitement to the men’s draw. The infighting is dead, even with six wins apiece. Even more good news is that both gentlemen are playing well. Alcaraz did not drop a set on the way to the semi-finals. Zverev has dropped a lot, but don’t let that fool you into thinking he’s out of shape. He was also a finalist in Melbourne in 2025 (losing to Sinner), so the courts suit his game. I can’t choose against another Alcaraz-Sinner final. Like Thanos, it’s inevitable. Still, this should be a treat. Alcaraz in 5: 7-6(4), 4-6, 6-3, 5-7, 6-2.
Pete (Tennis insight): Zverev has always presented Alcaraz with challenges, as evidenced by their 6-6 H2H. Zverev can even point to his convincing victory in the quarter-finals of the Australian Open in 2024, if anyone doubts he is up to the task. Barring a tough test against American Tommy Paul in the fourth round, the Spaniard and world number 1 has cruised into the semi-finals without losing a set. Zverev, a three-time major finalist and runner-up in Melbourne last year, has extended to a fourth set in all but one match so far this fortnight. It will be interesting to see if the absence of long-time coach Juan Carlos Ferrero will have any impact on Alcaraz in the final rounds of a major. It is unknown territory now and in the future. That being said, he is in great shape at the moment. Zverev hit only six double faults in 19 sets spread over five matches. Even if he continues to serve so well, it still probably won’t be enough this time. Alcaraz in 4: 6-4, 3-6, 7-6(4), 6-4.
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