Australian captain Pat Cummins says he is unlikely to suit up for the first Ashes Test

Australia captain Pat Cummins says it is “less likely than likely” he will be fit for the Ashes Series opener against England next month.

The fast bowler is recovering from lumbar bone stress in his lower back and has not played since July, although he has resumed running during training.

The 32-year-old faces a race to get fit for the first Test in Perth on November 21, but admits he is willing to gamble with his fitness given the significance of the series.

Cummins, who said he planned to resume bowling practice next week, told Cricket Australia’s official website: “You’d probably want to be in the nets for at least a month.

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Closely

“When you’re playing a Test match, you want to make sure you’re right when you bowl 20 overs a day without really having to think about it.

“So four weeks is pretty tight, but I think somewhere around that point. I’m running today and running about every second day, and each run takes a little longer.

“Then I will start preparing for bowling next week. It will probably be a few more weeks before I actually put on the spikes and start bowling on the turf.”

“With these things it’s quite difficult to go from not bowling or not doing anything at all to suddenly playing five Tests.

“So the first steps are to try to give (me) a chance to be right, and then we’ll figure it out.”

Gambling

Cummins said Australia’s limited schedule in early 2026 meant he could gamble more than he would normally like with his fitness.

“Next year will not be as busy as other years. There is a T20 World Cup (in February-March) but the bulk of the Test matches will take place later in the year,” he said.

“There’s a little bit of that aspect of it (taking more risks). This is the big series in the next six to 12 month block, but you have to weigh that against taking stupid risks that could cost you in the long run.”

Washout

Former Australia opener David Warner believes Cummins’ likely absence could swing the result of the first Test in England’s favour, but would still support a comfortable home win.

The 38-year-old, best known in Ashes cricket for his repeated dismissals by Stuart Broad, told reporters Down Under: “If Cummo is there, 4-0. If the captain doesn’t play, maybe they can win one game.”

“There will be a washout somewhere, usually in Sydney.”

Antagonist

Warner was a regular on-field opponent in his playing days but has warned against inciting England captain Ben Stokes.

“If we can’t poke that bear and get it on its feet, I think it will help the Australians tremendously,” he said.

“I had the happy privilege of sharing a dressing room with him when he was younger and he has developed into a serious cricketer and a fantastic leader.

“I want to see some banter on the pitch and I want to see them play against each other a bit – obviously not at Stokes – because that’s what creates that energy and involvement in the game.”

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