At worst, Verstappen is heading for a heroic failure | RACER

Can a driver who is 36 points behind with 116 to play really be favorite for the World Cup?

Mathematically not, but Max Verstappen’s progress towards the top of the rankings seems inexorable. How the McLaren drivers deal with the gate crasher in what was once their own private battle could well decide the fate of the championship. As a result, with four Grands Prix (and two sprints) to go, Verstappen is somehow simultaneously the outsider with nothing to lose, and a man with a fifth title tantalizingly within his reach.

There has never been a title fight like this. If Verstappen were to pull it off, trailing by 104 points after the Dutch Grand Prix, it would be the most dramatic turnaround in history. This is not only measured by the total number of points, but also if you adjust the figures to the different points systems over the years. That he’s even considered a realistic threat with four events remaining is an astonishing feat, meaning he’s on course for heroic failure at worst. At best, it could be something truly remarkable.

But despite all the improvements Red Bull has made and the fact that Verstappen managed to close the points gap even on a relatively disappointing weekend like Mexico, where Lando Norris’ McLaren dominated and he could only finish third, he has a more powerful weapon in his arsenal: the fact that he is Max Verstappen and has been here several times. Just two months ago, and already with four titles to his name, this is effectively a free pass for him, and he just doesn’t need it as much as Norris or Piastri.

That’s not a criticism of a lack of desire, but simply that he’s in a very different place psychologically. For both McLaren drivers, this is potentially the culmination of everything they have worked for, a potentially career-defining peak that will earn them lifetime membership of what would then only be a 35-member club. While McLaren can be expected to remain a force in F1, there is no guarantee this will be the case due to the upcoming powertrain and chassis changes, and both will fear this could be their only chance. That’s the big difference between Verstappen, who’s been there and done that, and would just climb the same old mountain he’s climbed several times before.

Moreover, like Yul Brynner’s mechanical cowboy in the original Westworld, Verstappen keeps coming no matter what. Championship fights are stressful at the best of times, and how the protagonists handle that pressure – even fear – can affect the fight one way or another.

But if Verstappen is the immovable object that the others must oppose, Norris and Piastri find themselves on ever-changing sand. Piastri was the leader for a long time. He took the lead in April and after amassing 34 points with victory in the Dutch Grand Prix at the end of August, there was almost a clamor for him to be crowned among F1 fans. Although the job wasn’t done, he now had a clear advantage that could be managed. That made the five-event run that followed easy, as even Piastri’s Baku disaster, which saw him crash in both qualifying and on the first lap of the race, only netted him an eight-point haul thanks to Norris’s struggles.

But the moment he crossed the line fifth in Mexico and fell one point behind Norris, everything changed for him. Now it’s a simple battle, where whichever way you solve the equation, the better McLaren driver from the last four weekends will prevail in the intra-team battle. Where it becomes more difficult, for example, is when Piastri is ahead of Norris in a race, but with Verstappen in sight – how do you divide the strategy? And it’s questions like these that can cause drivers to do strange things.

Likewise, Norris’s position has now been transformed. He is on what is effectively an equal footing with his teammate and must also include Verstappen in his calculations. As he has been catching up in recent months, he has looked increasingly confident and convincing. Could that change now that he is the frontrunner, even if only just? It’s easy to play cod psychology when it comes to this scenario, and mental strength will come into play. After all, the big challenge in top sport is executing your skills, following the process as if nothing is at stake, when in reality everything is at stake. The idea of ​​a “clutch player” is not someone who takes their game to the next level when it really matters, but someone who performs as if they really don’t when everything is on the line. That’s why drivers always roll out the cliché that they have to do it race by race. Teams are doing the same, as Red Bull team boss Laurent Mekies recently noted.

“The championship ranking is a result of that,” said Mekies. It doesn’t change anything for us. Whether we are close or far, as a team we still want to come to the track and leave knowing that we have done absolutely everything we can and that everything is good enough to fight for the win.

It’s a simple statement, which is easier to implement as a team than as an individual driver. However, it is not the only factor that plays a role. What makes motorsport so fascinating is the interaction between the human and the technical. Take Piastri’s battle in Mexico, where low-grip conditions made things difficult for him. It’s true that this played to Norris’s strengths and weaknesses, but given the six-tenths gap in qualifying and the significant shortfall in race pace, how much does the response to title pressure contribute to that, if at all?

And what about the mistakes in Baku? What happens this weekend at Interlagos will help answer that as it is a track that in itself should not be a problem for him, even if Norris was faster in dry conditions last year in terms of underlying pace. From the outside, we can’t answer that with any certainty, and the same is probably true for Piastri, even though there are measurable physiological responses to stress that could give him and those around him a hint. It could be that the pressure wasn’t even a minor factor, but still, the change of position from chaser to chaser could also completely change the situation.

What’s especially fascinating are the variables in the remaining events that will come into play. Last year in Brazil, the McLaren was comfortably fastest on a dry surface, but struggled in the wet thanks to the need to switch to a higher downforce rear wing and, most problematically, problems with brake lock. If it had stayed dry last year, Norris might have completed the sprint/Grand Prix double (Piastri had to pass him to win the race on Saturday), but the rain meant Verstappen took an unlikely victory from 17.e on the grid. Such ‘Acts of God’ could tip the scales of the championship, and the McLaren drivers will have good reason to view the current weather forecast for this weekend with suspicion, as there is a chance of rain.

On the other hand, McLaren will have worked on those weaknesses and perhaps turned things around. What happened last time is not necessarily a valid prediction of how things will go next time. Interlagos is a circuit with a habit of producing the unexpected, where drivers’ skills and adaptability can be stretched to their limits.

Of the three circuits that complete the season, Qatar and Abu Dhabi are the most clearly McLaren territory. Despite all of Red Bull’s improvements, these could be good opportunities for Norris and Piastri. Las Vegas, meanwhile, is the real wild card. Based on last year you’d say it could be a nightmare for McLaren, as it was then. However, the grain formation of the tires was the problem at the time and the tires have been changed this year to be more resistant to this. That made a big difference in Mexico, where McLaren thrived but might not have if the tension of 2024 had been a factor, which it wasn’t.

Then there’s the matter of track temperature and the form of the other leading teams, with Mercedes again favored by many to lead the way. And given that Red Bull is sorting out its car issues, you can’t even try to map its performance in Las Vegas last year to 2025, meaning it’s very difficult to say exactly how that weekend could affect things. Even the teams themselves will not be able to make reliable predictions.

The almost infinite complexity of F1 is what makes it so fascinating. The fate of the world championship may and likely will depend in part on factors completely beyond the control of the teams and drivers. Sometimes such pivots play for or against their driving toolbox, but again it draws attention to Verstappen. After all, no driver is better equipped to deal with that than him, even if the Red Bull is still not the equal of the McLaren overall.

Yet he also offers Norris and Piastri a great opportunity. As unwelcome as his presence is to them in their battle, they both have a chance to be crowned champions after stopping him and defeating their own teammate. Although Verstappen makes life difficult for them, ironically his presence could only serve to enhance their eventual victory. It could also help them ensure that conflict within the team is kept in check, as there is now a third party that can steal their collective thunder.

The game has fundamentally changed from the one they played earlier this season, and it could even be to their advantage. If so, they can stop him. And the best way to do that is what it’s always been: go out and win. Sometimes winning a championship really is that simple.