Analyst Says MSTR Could Surge More Than 45% With Any Bitcoin Breakout

Jamie Coutts highlights capitulation volume and a hammer candle on the MSTR, indicating a possible trend reversal.

Shares of Strategy (MSTR), the enterprise software company turned Bitcoin (BTC) holding company, this week showed one of the most active technical settings in recent months, according to market analyst Jamie Coutts, who today highlighted a cluster of signals forming near the $195 zone.

He said the pattern could reflect a turning point for the company, as Bitcoin remains stable after weeks of volatility. This potential move is important as Strategy has once again become a bellwether for market sentiment, with major institutions now viewing the company’s position as a guide to BTC’s next direction.

Technical signals form around a key support zone

Coutts noted on He also pointed to overlapping indicators including DeMark levels, shifting momentum and a series of price thresholds all around $195.

Above that area, he saw a thin volume band extending to around $285, leaving the door open for a sharp increase as buyers return.

“Even the MSTR/BTC ratio is starting to show fatigue after a long period of underperformance,” the analyst wrote.

That view echoed JPMorgan’s latest analysis, which said Bitcoin’s near-term price could depend on whether Strategy can keep the ratio of enterprise value to Bitcoin above 1.

With the ratio now around 1.13 and backed by a cash reserve of $1.44 billion, the bank’s analysts argued that BTC’s treasury has enough flexibility to hold its line even if markets remain shaky. JPMorgan added that if Strategy remains in the MSCI index after a January 15 review, Bitcoin could rebound, with a medium-term fair value of almost $170,000.

A company at the center of crypto market cycles

The growing importance of strategy comes at a time when its approach is evolving. As previously reported, the company has dramatically slowed its Bitcoin purchases, from a peak of 134,000 BTC per month in 2024 to just 9,100 BTC in November 2025.

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The same report confirmed that the company could sell Bitcoin or derivatives as part of its broader risk plan, a notable shift from its long-standing ‘buy every dip’ stance.

Still, other analysts believe the market has overly punished MSTR stock. In a December 1 report, CryptoQuant analyst Carmelo Alemán noted that the stock is trading in a “rare historical undervaluation zone.”

He calculated that the value implied by Strategy’s holdings of approximately 650,000 BTC, acquired at an average cost of approximately $74,400, exceeds the company’s current market capitalization by approximately 78%. The stock, currently trading around $186, remains well below its 52-week high of $457.