For the first time in fifteen years, Formula 1 will have a title decider with more than two drivers, while Lando Norris, Max Verstappen and Oscar Piastri will battle for the championship at the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix.
While Norris had the chance to take his first title in Qatar, his fourth place combined with Verstappen’s victory and Piastri’s second place left the trio just 16 points ahead, 25 of which were available at the Yas Marina Circuit.
Norris remains the clear favorite for the championship as he currently has a 12-point lead over Verstappen, meaning he can guarantee the title is his with a podium finish regardless of what his other two opponents manage to achieve. Beyond this simple equation, it’s easiest to focus on what his rivals need to do to have a chance of stopping him.
For Verstappen, a finish in the top three is absolutely necessary. Fourth place is not enough to become champion, because even if he ties with Norris (fourth place gives 12 points), he would lose based on second place.
For Verstappen to become champion, he needs the following:
- If Verstappen wins the race, Norris will not be higher than fourth place
- If Verstappen finishes second, Norris no higher than eighth, Piastri does not win
- If Verstappen finishes third, Norris no higher than ninth, Piastri does not win
For Piastri, the task is even bigger and he must finish in the top two to have a chance of becoming champion, given his 16-point deficit to Norris.
For Piastri to win the title, he needs the following:
- If Piastri wins the race, Norris will not be higher than sixth place
- If Piastri finishes second, Norris no higher than tenth, Verstappen no higher than fourth
Piastri will be automatically eliminated if Norris finishes in the top five, but Norris could finish fifth or fourth to beat Piastri and still lose to Verstappen if the Dutchman wins the race.
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