No. 1 Carlos Alcaraz plays No. 4 Novak Djokovic in the men’s final of the Australian Open – with history on the line. Will Alcaraz win and become the youngest man to win all four major titles? Or will Djokovic defy the odds and claim a record-breaking 25th Grand Slam title?
Who will it be? Our experts analyze it.
What can Alcaraz do to beat Djokovic?
D’Arcy Maine: In Friday’s semifinal, Alcaraz battled injuries, cramps and even vomiting during the 5-hour, 27-minute encounter – not to mention Alexander Zverev’s incredible play – and still emerged victorious. When asked afterwards how he won despite the circumstances, Alcaraz said he “kept believing, believing all the time.”
And that goes to the core of what makes Alcaraz so good. He knows he can win anyway and fights until the last point. It is clear that the better tennis player at this stage and with the physical advantage, if Alcaraz maintains the same fighting spirit and undeniable determination that he has shown, this should be his to win.
Jake Michaels: Alcaraz’s renewed serve (from Djokovic no less!) is his secret weapon this tournament. If he continues to hit his first serves at a higher rate, he will be difficult to overcome, even for the greatest returner in tennis history.
And it may seem incredibly backward because he is 16 years younger than his opponent, but Alcaraz needs to end the match quickly. After his epic, energy-draining five-and-a-half-hour semi-final victory over Zverev in the heat of the day, the longer this final goes on, the more the pendulum swings in Djokovic’s favor. That’s not only because the 24-time Major champion is fresher and spent four hours less on the court to reach the final, but also because he knows how to win when these legendary Grand Slam matches go to the extreme.
Jarryd Barca: Obviously this applies to both players, but Alcaraz does not have to reinvent the wheel; he just has to be the best version of himself. The world number 1 has not shown any disappointment throughout the tournament. He dispatched his first five opponents in straight sets before enduring that wild, physically and mentally exhausting five-set semi-final with Zverev. He began to cramp and barely move during the closing stages of the third set, but Alcaraz showed the kind of determination we have long associated with Djokovic. He overcame a 3-5 deficit in the fifth set and won, despite being far from his peak.
Tactically, variety will be key. Alcaraz must disrupt Djokovic’s rhythm with changes of pace and direction, something Jannik Sinner failed to do enough in his semi-final defeat. Alcaraz must take away Djokovic’s comfort and make him work for every point. If Alcaraz can tire the 38-year-old’s legs early and often, his equally stunning athleticism and creativity should tilt the game in his favor.
What can Djokovic do to beat Alcaraz?
Maine: While recovery will obviously be crucial for both players competing in Sunday’s final, it will be crucial for Djokovic. At 38, Friday’s marathon semi-final will likely affect Djokovic more than the five-hour-plus battle the 22-year-old Alcaraz endured. To win the elusive 25th major title – it’s impressive that he’s even in this position – he has everything he has.
And if Djokovic can find more gas in the tank, he will have to adopt a similar strategy to last year’s quarterfinal. In that four-set victory against Alcaraz, Djokovic dropped the first set and then took control despite an apparent injury. He started dictating points aggressively, started ripping basic shots and firing one risky shot after another, ruthlessly keeping the pressure until it was over. But whatever tactics he uses, Djokovic will need his best level to achieve this victory.
Michaels: Djokovic’s contrast in attitude and level of play from the quarter-final to the semi-final was stark. Against Lorenzo Musetti in the last eight, Djokovic appeared subdued and almost disinterested as he lost the first two sets. But on Friday evening, in that titanic battle against Sinner, Djokovic once again looked like the man with the heart of a lion and the greatest tennis skills in history. If Djokovic beats Alcaraz on Sunday evening, he cannot return to his behavior from the quarter-finals for a second. He must remain the aggressor. He must be ruthless. He needs to be animated. And if he can achieve all that, the crowd will surely get behind him and lead him to a 25th major title.
Barca: Just like with Alcaraz, it starts with recovery, but the execution will decide everything, just like on Friday evening. His serve was extraordinary against Sinner, and it should be, with Djokovic winning 86% of first-serve points in the second set and 77% in the fourth, using his precise placements to escape pressure and dictate play. It allowed him to swing freely on his forehand throughout the match, playing with an aggression rarely seen this late in his career, but which he needed to topple the two best players in the world.
Djokovic must match that pace and intensity again against Alcaraz. But he doesn’t have to beat the Spaniard on every point. Djokovic must outlast him in the big moments and find ways to replicate the 16 of 18 break points he saved against Sinner. That was the difference in the semi-final. Limiting Alcaraz’s chances by remaining tenacious, courageous and protecting his serve will go a long way in finding a way to win again.
Who will win?
Maine: Alcaraz is the favorite, but we’ve all seen what Djokovic can do – and the magic he’s found so often during his storied career. While fatigue may be a factor, Djokovic knows this may be his best (and perhaps last) chance to secure No. 25, and just as he did in the Olympic gold medal match against Alcaraz, he will give it his all to achieve it. I can’t compete with that. Djokovic in four sets.
Michaels: I have been writing for years that you cannot ignore Djokovic at the Australian Open, regardless of the circumstances. He proved again how true that is on Friday evening by dethroning defending champion Sinner with one of the greatest performances of his illustrious career. At 38 years old he shouldn’t be in the final. He should not be able to align with this next generation. And yet he is. How can you choose against him? Djokovic will triumph in five exciting sets.
Barca: Both men arrive in the final battered and bruised. Alcaraz battled cramps to survive the third-longest match in tournament history against Zverev, while veteran Djokovic produced one of the best performances of his career to dethrone two-time defending champion Sinner in more than four hours despite his own visible physical problems.
So does this amount to recovery? Is it really who wakes up feeling fresher? Who avoids physical problems longer? Djokovic’s history is of great importance here. He has never lost an Australian Open final, has already turned back the clock once this week and thrives when the stakes grow. Alcaraz may be the world number 1, but Djokovic knows this stage better than anyone and may have a mental advantage by leading the head-to-head 5-4. If Djokovic can produce anything close to his semi-final level again, it’s hard not to trust him. Djokovic in five.
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