At first glance, it seems like AI is losing momentum. It’s not. The definition of ROI has simply changed.
When AI was new, productivity gains and increased production counted as success. Now that AI is embedded in core businesses, executives want economic impact: revenue growth, margin improvement, measurable business growth. As standards rise, trust naturally declines.
Retail illustrates the shift. The share of retail marketers who say they can prove the ROI of AI fell from 54% to 38%, even as AI use remains high. Adoption alone no longer translates into perceived value. Measuring accuracy is important.
And if marketers measure properly, the returns are significant. Sixty percent of those who can prove ROI report at least twice the return. Among companies with revenues of more than $10 billion, that rises to 79%.
The decline in confidence is not a decline. It’s adulthood. AI is no longer judged as a productivity experiment; it is assessed as a business investment. Those who treat it that way see outsized returns.
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Constantine von Hoffman is editor-in-chief of MarTech. A veteran journalist, Con has covered business, finance, marketing and technology for CBSNews.com, Brandweek, CMO and Inc. He has been city editor of the Boston Herald, news producer at NPR, and has written for Harvard Business Review, Boston Magazine, Sierra and many other publications. He has also been a professional stand-up comedian, has lectured at anime and gaming conventions on everything from My Neighbor Totoro to the history of dice and board games, and is the author of the magical realist novel John Henry the Revelator. He lives in Boston with his wife Jennifer, and too many or too few dogs.
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