The $7 million Longines Breeders’ Cup Classic November 1 at Del Mar lost considerable luster when leading 3-year-old Sovereignty was withdrawn from the race on October 29 due to illness. Still, the 1 ¼ mile Classic features one of the strongest competitors in recent years, headlined by the top three finishers from last year’s Classic – Sierra Leone, Fierceness and Forever Young – plus three-year-old stars Journalism and Baeza and a few interesting longshots.
Read on for the America’s Best Racing team’s Breeders’ Cup Classic trifecta betting odds, and use ABR’s handy betting calculator to structure your bets.
Dan Tordjman:
When figuring out how to bet on the Breeders’ Cup Classic, I tried to think of multiple scenarios for how the pace could unfold. Sure, we’re all expecting #4 Opposite thinking to move into the lead, but then the challenge becomes predicting how the field spreads out behind him. Logical, I would expect #10 Antique dealer to make an early move to secure a forward position and try to hide behind Contrary Thinking. That second flight should also occur #3 Nevada Beach And #1 Wildness. Is it possible that the rest of the riders behind Contrary Thinking will simply let the leader go without putting any pressure on him? I think so. And I think that also makes the knight a player to hit the board.
As for the rest of the field, the three horses that always seem to appear and have the fewest question marks for me are #5 Forever young, #7 Sierra Leone And #9 Journalism. I would rank Journalism a little lower because he is a three-year-old in a field with some really seasoned older horses. He has also had a long and challenging campaign in 2025. As we know, Sierra Leone won this race last year on the same dirt track in Del Mar and has had another solid year. Forever Young is in the same camp as a proven four-year-old. He deserved better in last year’s Classic, but still finished in a strong third place.
That said, I’ll structure my trifecta tickets with Forever Young and Sierra Leone in first place, followed by Contrary Thinking and Journalism. To be fair, pretty much anyone in this field can get third, so I would play one ticket with “ALL” in last place and another ticket that is more firmly aligned with my top three to four selections.
Strategy for a $50 budget:
$.50 trifecta: #5 Forever Young and #7 Sierra Leone of #4 Contrasting Thinking, #5 Forever Young, #7 Sierra Leone and #9 Journalism of ALL ($21)
$1 trifecta: #5 Forever young of #3 Nevada Beach, #4 Contrarian Thinking, #7 Sierra Leone, #9 Journalism and #10 Antiquarian, of #3 Nevada Beach, #4 Contrarian Thinking, #7 Sierra Leone, #9 Journalism and #10 Antiquarian ($20)
$2 trifecta: #5 Forever Young and #7 Sierra Leone of #5 Forever Young and #7 Sierra Leone of #4 Contrasting Thinking and #9 Journalism ($8)
Noël Michaels:
With Sovereignty removed from the 2025 Breeders’ Cup Classic, the race now looks a lot like a rematch of the 2024 Breeders’ Cup Classic, won by #7 Sierra Leone on the same track in Del Mar. So if you’re handicapping this year’s Classic, that’s where you should start.
Sierra Leone warmed up in the second half of this season with a win in Saratoga’s Grade 1 Whitney Stakes and then made a huge effort for second in the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup Stakes at the Spa after being hampered in the opening moments of the race as he had to avoid Mindframe’s fallen jockey. Speaking of #8 Mind framehe had a great season but hasn’t run a race since June 28 and for me that’s no way to make a winning run against an extremely tough classic field.
In last year’s classic #1 Wildness came second, and #5 Forever young ran third. Both horses have legitimate chances to turn the tables on Sierra Leone in the 2025 Classic. Forever Young’s rivalry with Sierra Leone actually dates back to the 2024 Kentucky Derby Presented by Woodford Reserve, when the pair finished noses apart in second and third place. The difference maker in the Breeders’ Cup could have been Forever Young’s fall prep race in Japan last month, which he won comfortably after a summer refresh. Sierra Leone and Fierceness, meanwhile, avoided the autumn preparation races. It looks like this race will be Forever Young’s best chance yet to turn the tables on his enemies and ultimately take home the victory.
A trio of remarkable three-year-olds step up to challenge the older horses in the Classic and all three #2 Baeza, #3 Nevada BeachAnd #9 Journalism are realistic contenders with good chances. However, Baeza beat no one in the Grade 1 Pennsylvania Derby and Journalism was soundly defeated by Fierceness when they met in the Grade 1 Pacific Classic Stakes at Del Mar this summer. The overlooked three-year-old is Nevada Beach, a lightly raced but clearly improving Bob Baffert trainee with the potential to be a factor in big chances, at least in the exactas and/or trifectas.
Strategy for a $60 budget:
$2 Trifecta Box: #1 Wildness, #3 Nevada Beach, #5 Forever Young and #7 Sierra Leone ($48)
$2 trifecta: #5 Forever young of #1 Wildness, #3 Nevada Beach and #7 Sierra Leone, of #1 Wildness, #3 Nevada Beach and #7 Sierra Leone ($12)
Mike Curry:
My feeling about this race was that Sovereignty had to lose before it caught a fever. Three-year-olds have won nine of the last 26 editions of the race and he was simply in impeccable form. Time to adjust…
I still think the 3 year old harvest is very good, so #2 Baeza, #3 Nevada BeachAnd #9 Journalism will be featured prominently on my tickets. I’ve also long believed in second place in last year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic #5 Forever youngwho is my pick to win this year’s race.
My original plan was to fade the older horses in the Classic, and I still will to some extent, but not as much as I intended to do with Sovereignty out of the race. My ticket is structured with Forever Young and Baeza at the top. I will use #1 Wildness in second and third place because he did so well at Del Mar and included last year’s winner #7 Sierra Leone in third place. I’ll also be hammering a Baeza-Forever Young exacta box.
Strategy for a $24 budget:
$1 Trifecta: #2 Baeza and #5 forever young of #1 Savagery, #2 Baeza, #5 Forever Young and #9 Journalism of #1 Savagery, #2 Baeza, #3 Nevada Beach, #5 Forever Young, #7 Sierra Leone and #9 Journalism ($24)
Patrick Reed:
Even without Sovereignty, this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic is a fantastic race. Eight of the nine entered horses can win (sorry, #4 Opposite thinking). For me the key to the race will be the way the jockeys John Velazquez and Luis Saez get on board #1 Wildness And #10 Antique dealerrespond respectively to the presence of the ‘rabbit’ Contrary Thinking, who has been registered to set a fast pace with the designs to assist the closing meeting of stablemate Sierra Leone.
If Contrary Thinking wasn’t in the running, I, along with many others, would see Fierceness as a threat to win the Classic in gate-to-wire fashion. Velazquez rode both Fierceness and Antiquarian to victory in their latest Classic preparations, and as he remains with Fierceness on Saturday, Luis Saez, who is also leading very well, will gain an advantage over Antiquarian for the first time. I believe that if both jockeys get their mounts out of the gate in good condition, from both inside (Fierceness) and outside (Antiquarian) post positions, they will settle right behind Contrary Thinking, bide their time, and then sail past him and hit the front on the far turn.
If that happens, both runners will look to open themselves up to the rest of the field – and while there is far too much talent among this year’s Classic contenders for a speed horse to unleash and dominate, both Fierceness and Antiquarian could have enough left to hang around in the homestretch and win.
As such, I’m reviewing them both on top of a $1 trifecta with #7 Sierra Leone and improve #2 Baeza tied with them in second place and every horse in the field except Contrary Thinking in third place. I then bet a $2 trifecta with Fierceness and Antiquarian in first and second place and Baeza and Sierra Leone in third place. #8 Mind framelike Fierceness and Antiquarian trained by Todd Pletcher, I’m particularly concerned with Irad Ortiz Jr. on board, but like my colleague Noel Michaels above, I’m willing to bet that since he last ran a meaningful race in June, he may not quite be enough to win or finish second in this highly competitive classic.
Strategy for a $50 budget:
$1 Trifecta: #1 Wildness and #10 Antique Dealer of #1 Wildness, #2 Baeza, #7 Sierra Leone and #10 Antiquarian, of #1 Wildness, #2 Baeza, #3 Nevada Beach, #5 Forever Young, #7 Sierra Leone, #8 Mindframe, #9 Journalism and #10 Antiquarian ($42)
$2 Trifecta: $1 fierceness and #10 antique dealer of #1 Wildness and #10 Antique Dealer, of #2 Baeza and #7 Sierra Leone ($8)
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