A row over Taiwan threatens relations between China and Japan

BEIJING – Less than a month into her term, Japan’s conservative leader has stoked tensions with China by suggesting that Chinese action against Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response.

China objects to the involvement of other countries in Taiwan, especially the United States, the main arms supplier to the self-governing island. Beijing claims it as its own and says it should come under its control. It says it is a domestic issue and “a red line” that others should not cross.

Takaichi went further than previous Japanese statements

Speaking to a parliamentary committee on November 7, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said a Chinese naval blockade or other action against Taiwan could be grounds for a Japanese military response.

Her comments were stronger than those of her predecessors. Previous prime ministers have expressed concern about the Chinese threat against Taiwan but have not publicly said how Japan would respond.

Takaichi later refused to retract her comments, but told the same parliamentary committee three days later that she would not talk about specific scenarios in the future.

Japan’s new leader has been a supporter of Taiwan for years. She sees China as a growing threat and has ordered an acceleration of plans to boost Japan’s military spending.

Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Friday that Japan’s position on Taiwan has not changed.

China responds with stern warnings

Takaichi’s comments caused an uproar in China, with the foreign and defense ministries, the Taiwan Affairs Bureau and state media all weighing in.

Her comments came as a surprise because tensions over Taiwan were not particularly high, said Wang Huiyao, chairman of the Center for China and Globalization, a Beijing think tank.

“We cannot just let the Prime Minister speak so openly in Parliament,” he said.

One of the first to speak out was the Chinese Consul General in Osaka, who said in a now-deleted social media post that China has no choice but to cut off an invading “dirty neck.” Motegi called the post “extremely inappropriate.”

The Chinese Foreign Ministry on Thursday summoned the Japanese ambassador to warn against any interference in Taiwan. The next day, Japan’s Foreign Ministry summoned the Chinese ambassador in Tokyo to complain about the social media post.

Beijing is raising the bar

On Friday evening, China took aim at Japan’s tourism economy. It has issued a notice advising against travel to Japan. About 7.5 million Chinese tourists visited the country in the first nine months of this year, the most from any country and about a quarter of the total.

China’s Ministry of Education followed up on Sunday with a warning to students about recent crimes against Chinese in Japan, though it did not advise them not to go.

Also on Sunday, China’s coast guard announced it was patrolling the waters around a group of uninhabited islands that both countries claim.

A bigger concern for Japan would be if China were to restrict exports of rare earth magnets, vital components in auto manufacturing and other industries. There was no immediate indication that China was considering this.

Japanese officials are trying to calm the waters. Motegi said he planned to ask China to provide “an appropriate response” to avoid a major impact on relations.

The US-Japan alliance looms in the background

Japan’s position is complicated by its post-World War II constitution, which prohibits the use of force except to defend its territory – the military is called the Self-Defense Force.

Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe succeeded in expanding the military’s mandate by winning parliamentary approval in 2015 of a law allowing Japan to come to the aid of an ally – most likely the US – in a conflict determined to pose an existential threat to Japan.

Takaichi, who rose in politics as Abe’s protégé, said a Chinese move against Taiwan could qualify as a threat, setting off the ensuing firestorm.

Another possible threat would be a conflict with North Korea, which the US is attracting, analysts say. Japan has previously not specified what would constitute an existential threat under the provision, called collective self-defense.

Now Tokyo does not want to retract Takaichi’s comment, saying it could reduce its options in a Taiwanese crisis. Returning could also damage the new prime minister’s high public support and her image as a hawk on China.