3 big reasons September can pop up a Bitcoin (BTC) Rally

Tl; Dr.

• Bitcoin (BTC) acts under $ 110,000, but different elements suggest that it can actively experience a substantial revival in the coming weeks.
• Despite the positive signals, September has traditionally been a weak month for it.

Huge profit this month?

The primary cryptocurrency exploded to a new of all time mid -August, and surpassed $ 124,000. Since then, however, it has difficulty retaining his momentum and now has $ 15,000 lower. However, investors and crypto enthusiasts have not lost the hope that the Bullrun is over, with all eyes now focused on September.

An important event that could act as a important Catalyst This month is the potential reduction of interest rates in the United States. Less than two weeks ago, Jerome Powell, chairman of the Federal Reserve, hitch At his speech in Jackson Hole that the benchmark could indeed be reduce before the end of the year.

The relocation (if implemented) will make money-leen cheaper and will probably increase the interest in risk-on assets (such as BTC). Currently the rates in the range of 4.25% – 4.5% and the last time they are were reduced was in December 2024.

The next FOMC meeting of the FED is planned For September, and according to polymarket there is a chance of 83% that the percentage will be reduce with 0.25%. The chance of a more drastic decrease of half a percent is only 3.6%, while “no change” is estimated at 13%.

We will continue to the amount of BTC that is stored on crypto fairs, who fell to a new seven-year-old low a few days ago. The exodus of centralized platforms indicates that more and more investors are moving to self -spice methods, which reduces the immediate sales pressure and that could be interpreted Like a bullish indicator.

Last but not leastWe’ll be the popular Anxiety and greed index, which analyzes the current sentiment of the Bitcoin market. It varies from 0 to 100 and shows the current state of the total market sentiment of extreme fear of extreme greed. Due to the price retreat of the active in recent days, the index has introduced the territory of the “fear” and currently has a ratio of 46.

This It may sound disturbing for bulls, but it sometimes indicates that panic sales may already be behind us and that could be be on display As a shopping option. In such cases it is always useful to quote the famous investment maxima of Warren Buffett: “Be afraid if others are greedy and greedy if others are anxious.”

History is on the Bearish side

Despite the aforementioned factors That suggests that BTC could collect in the next 30 days, investors Take it into account The historical implementation of the active in September. In the past 12 years, the prize has succeeded in closing only four times in the green.

Moreover, September has always been red for BTC after a half -year year. Remember that the last halving happened In the spring of 2024, and it will be interesting to see if history will repeat yourself.