Now that the Big Game is in the books, there’s nothing better than hitting the 2026 Pre-Draft Bestball streets. Since many of these never-too-early contests started two weeks ago, much of the market has stabilized due to early news and overreactions. This article examines six players whose average draft position (ADP) has shifted since games started in late January. Whether you are in the QuickDraft streets, pounding matches in the FFPCor by swiping Underdogreading the best trends in the ball market is a necessary edge to winning these early games.
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Best ball risers and fallers
Riser: KC Concepcion | Incoming Rookie WR, Texas A&M
(+110.9 ADP spots, 46.2% increase)
Concepcion has gone from a last-round afterthought to an 11th-round ADP, correcting an early mispricing. In the pre-combine 2026 rookie mock drafts, he is routinely selected in the late first to mid-second rounds, which is a sign of growing confidence in his profile. That rising rating has already pushed him ahead of Kayshon Boutte and Romeo Doubs in ADP, while he’s still behind Jayden Higgins and Matthew Golden. This alignment indicates that the market is rapidly recalibrating, but may not yet be fully adjusted.
Riser: Jahmyr Gibbs | RB, Detroit Lions
(+2.1 ADP spots, 42% increase)
Gibbs has gone from the 1.05 range to a near-consensus top-three selection. While the numerical jump seems modest, context matters: He has overtaken elite wide receivers Ja’Marr Chase and Jaxon Smith-Njigba at the top of draft boards. This shift reflects both confidence in Gibbs’ weekly ceiling and growing uncertainty elsewhere. Rumor has it that Detroit is preparing for life without David Montgomery, whose role steadily declined during the 2025 season. Gibbs capitalized, racking up 320 total touches and boosting his workhorse profile. With lingering questions surrounding Jonathan Taylor and Christian McCaffrey, Gibbs and Bijan Robinson now stand alone in a clear top tier among fantasy assets.
Riser: Trey Benson | RB, Arizona Cardinals
(+96.6 ADP spots, 40.2% increase)
Benson’s surge reflects renewed optimism about his long-term prospects. The former third-round pick is still just 23 years old and made a limited impact during the 2025 season. Despite playing in only four games, he averaged four goals per game and consistently achieved Top-36 weekly RB finishes, even with James Conner active. A knee injury ultimately ended his season, but the market is looking ahead. Conner will be 31 when the 2026 season begins and is dealing with a serious ankle injury, with a potential release giving Arizona just a $2.25 million cap hit. That combination has fueled Benson’s ADP climb. Still, there’s a risk in the profile: The Cardinals have been mocked by selecting Jeremiyah Love in the first round of the 2026 NFL Draft. Such a move would likely reverse Benson’s current ADP momentum.
Faller: Kyle Pitts | Free agent TE, Atlanta Falcons
(–49.2 ADP points, –120% change)
Pitts opened draft season with an ADP around 41st overall, a price that likely overreacted to his surge in late 2025. Those peak weeks largely came in the context of Drake London’s injuries, which hit Pitt’s additional targets and inflated his short-term prospects. Since then, Atlanta has entered a period of transition. They brought in Kevin Stefanski and Matt Ryan to reshape the organization from both a coaching and leadership perspective.
The uncertainty at quarterback only adds to the volatility: Michael Penix is working back from a torn ACL, and the Falcons are expected to move on from Kirk Cousins, raising questions about whether a veteran stopgap will be added. With so many moving pieces, Pitts’ ADP correction feels less like a collapse and more like a recalibration, and should find a more stable range as the offseason unfolds. Adding to the ADP speculation is whether Pitts will be re-signed by Atlanta or end up in a different colored jersey in 2026.
Faller: Alec Pierce | Free agent WR, Indianapolis Colts
(–27.3 ADP points, –50.56% change)
Pierce’s decline reflects more uncertainty than a decline in performance. As a free agent, he’s a priority for Indianapolis to retain after a real breakout in 2025. Pierce posted career highs across the board — 47 receptions, 1,003 receiving yards, 1,593 air yards and 84 targets — while finishing as the WR23 in fantasy points per game despite playing in just 15 games. His underlying stats were elite: a league-high 51.8% share of air yards, second in both yards per target and yards per reception, and third in deep targets. Still, Pierce profiles as a volatile, boom-bust option best suited to the best ball formats regardless of where he lands in 2026. The context driving his ADP decline and concern is clear. If a struggling team pays too much for his on-field skills without the infrastructure to support it, Pierce’s fantasy efficiency could take a significant hit.
Faller: Jerry Jeudy | WR, Cleveland Browns
(–39.4 ADP points, –32.83% change)
Jeudy’s decline in ADP is less due to his individual play and more due to the environment around him. After a career year in 2024, he spent the 2025 season catching passes from three quarterbacks who ranked among the bottom eight in the EPA per game: Joe Flacco, Shedeur Sanders and Dillon Gabriel. Despite this, Jeudy still commanded 106 targets, totaling 50 receptions for 602 yards and just two touchdowns. Efficiency lagged behind, but the opportunity profile remained encouraging. He finished WR22 in air yards, WR23 in air yards share, and WR33 in first read target share versus man coverage. Throw in a target share of 29.6% on first reading general which ranked 24th among wide receivers.
Looking ahead, tight end David Njoku is expected to leave Cleveland in 2026, which could free up additional volume. The lingering concern is quarterback play, as the Browns reportedly plan to pit Deshaun Watson against Shedeur Sanders for QB1. Watson’s last expanded sample was historically inefficient, limiting Jeudy’s prospects. Still, this ADP dip is likely to stabilize after a season that already represented almost a worst-case scenario.
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