Hesitant to say a pitcher was overrated for reasons. A big reason is that in my 2026 fantasy baseball rankings, where it includes the starter rankings, it’s pretty clear which pitchers to avoid and which pitchers to draft, so by writing that you would – at least I would – hope you would understand which pitchers to avoid, but here we are, because Yoshinobu Yamamoto is set up way too high and also illustrates a larger problem with starters that is fun (for me at least) to explore for 750-ish words. (We’ll see how many side notes we have. One to three side notes and it will be 750 words; four to seven side notes and it will be 1000 words. Yes, this is one side note about side notes.) Currently, Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s ADP at NFBC is 27. I’m sorry, that’s batshizz. Can we just pretend it’s the 2025 preseason again? His ADP last year was 66. He was going at age 38 and even at age 104. This is information from VinWins for our RCL competitions – sign up now! It’s free. – so it’s not quite apples to apples. I compare NFBC ADP to RCL ADP, but it’s not that different. Last year I drafted Yoshinobu Yamamoto in competitions, luckily, it’s going well. What has changed? This will be a shock to you. Let’s do it in graph two. So, what can we expect from Yoshinobu Yamamoto for 2026 fantasy baseball and what makes him overrated?
Nothing has changed! That’s what I keep saying for Yoshinobu Yamamoto and starters (and some hitters too). If a man goes from fuckleberry to huckleberry, doesn’t he have a way back to fuckleberry? No. The point is, some guys will actually get better. If a guy actually improves, I’ll see you on my teams at a higher price. If a guy has a good season and doesn’t actually improve, why pay a higher price? You pay a higher price for something that isn’t real. Think of Tarik Skubal going from a provisional number four in 2022 to a sparking ace in 2023 and becoming an ace in 2024. He was actually better. Think of Shohei Ohtani going from an iffy bet at around 220 overall in 2021 drafts to a perennial MVP. He actually got better. Now think of Vlad Jr. in 2022. He was coming off a 48 home run season and everyone actually thought better. He actually wasn’t. He wasn’t bad, but he wasn’t a 48-homer hitter. I argue (for the featherweight title) that Yoshinobu Yamamoto didn’t really improve.
In 173 2/3 IP he went 12-8/2.49/0.99/201 with a 10.4 K/9, 3.1 BB/9, 3.05 xFIP and gives up a lot of hard contact for someone drafted as a top 25 overall player. Here is the Statcast:
I won’t say it’s bad; It’s not. The projected metrics are seriously flawed, so I’d ignore those top two. I would focus on everything else. Convenient to ignore the two sliders he excels at the most? P to maybe, but I’ve long said that expected metrics are stupid. I’m not saying Yoshinobu is a bad pitcher. I say he’s overrated. Here’s a starter drafted around the same spot that I say shouldn’t draft, but I’m NOT saying he’s overrated. This guy is actually better:
That’s a top five starter. That’s Garrett Crochet. I also like this guy better:
That’s Cristopher Sánchez. What stands out to me between Yamamoto and Sanchez’s Statcast is Chase%, Whiff%, K%, BB% and Sanchez going after Yamamoto in checkers.
Now you throw in all the little things Yoshinobu has against him. Dodgers have so many starters and aspirations higher than, “Can we get this guy to throw 200 IP so he wins 20 games?” Five to six innings in a six-man rotation, and Yoshinobu might be in line for wins, but why did he only win twelve last year? If the Dodgers are smart and want to save him for the playoffs, he’ll throw 155-ish innings and not 173 (211 IP with postseason). Plus, he just had a deep run in the playoffs. How will that affect him this year? He only threw 90 IP the year before, so maybe there’s some tired arm syndrome happening this year as the season progresses. He’s giving up a lot of walks (for a top three starter, while being called up) and hard contact, so maybe they’ll convert. Maybe his ground balls return to 2024 levels (47.9%) and not 2025 levels (52.8%). That’s trouble at Dodger Stadium. Again, he’s not bad, he’s overrated for fantasy queens this year. Yoshinobu is around a top 12 starter, not a top three starter. Well, not really better. One love, but you gotta stamp that a schmohawk.
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