XRP ready for breakout? Analyst marks bullish channel

Analysts are flagging XRP’s monthly support of $0.85-$0.95 as a potential smart money entry, amid a recent 34% monthly decline.

XRP is trading at $1.37, down nearly 15% in the past week and 33% in the past 30 days, as bearish sentiment continues to weigh on the Ripple token.

However, one widely followed analyst says the long-term monthly chart shows a rising channel with support at $0.85-$0.95, a zone he believes could mark the entry point for institutional capital that has yet to return to the market.

Monthly tree shows nine-year support zone

The technical case for a possible reversal rests entirely on the monthly time frame, analyst Arthur said posted a detailed thread on X early Wednesday. Its chart tracks XRP from March 2017 to the present, with each candlestick representing a full month of trading. The lower limit of an ascending channel, which has been repeatedly tested for nine years, is now at $0.85-$0.95, which is roughly 30% below current prices.

“This is a monthly structural analysis, supported by macro and long-term volume behavior,” Arthur wrote. “The bottom of the monthly channel could very well represent the area where ‘smart money’ returns.”

He pointed to volume as the missing ingredient. The largest volume spike in XRP history occurred between November 2020 and April 2021. According to him, the 2024 rally that pushed XRP above $2 saw four times less volume.

“The real money hasn’t returned yet,” he said. “What we saw in 2024 were whales and some funds. Not the big institutional flow that changes a market forever.”

Derivatives data supports the view that speculative positioning has cooled, Arab Chain analysis shows to show that open interest on XRP futures has fallen by approximately 1.8 billion XRP on Bybit and 1.6 billion on Binance in the past 30 days. Kraken also recorded a drop of approximately 1.5 billion XRP.

The contraction suggests that traders are closing leveraged positions rather than building new positions, a behavior typically observed during transition phases before a new trend emerges.

Macro background is shifted

The analyst’s optimism is not based solely on chart patterns. He highlighted five macro developments that differentiate early 2026 from previous cycles, including regulatory clarity following the conclusion of Ripple’s SEC lawsuit, the launch and scaling of RLUSD, and institutional integration of Ripple’s technology.

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Arthur also pointed to the accelerating tokenization story and what he called the “real institutional infrastructure” now in place.

“Technical analysis is always driven by macros,” the market observer said. “And the macro points up.”

XRP has a history of sharp recoveries after prolonged recessions. For example, during the 2018 bear market, the asset traded near $0.30 for months before rising to $1.70 in April 2021. In spring 2022, it bottomed out again around $0.35 and remained within a range until November 2024, when it climbed above $2 and later reached an all-time high of $3.65 in July 2025.