WM Phoenix Open Betting Guide: 6 picks our experts love this week

Welcome to our weekly PGA Tour betting tips column, featuring tips from GOLF.com’s expert prognosticator, Brady Kannon. A veteran golf bettor and commentator, Kannon is a host and regular on SportsGrid, a syndicated audio network dedicated to sports and sports betting, and is a golf betting analyst for CBS Sportsline. You can follow Brady on Twitter at @LasVegasGolferand you can read his picks below for the 2026 WM Phoenix Open, which kicks off Thursday in Scottsdale, Ariz.

Gotterup, Scheffler and Rose – that’s a pretty good start to the 2026 PGA Tour season – and it’s all happening out West, where a winner from a packed field will emerge at the WM Phoenix Open on Sunday, only to be followed by the NFL crowning its Super Bowl champion at Levi Stadium in Santa Clara, California. While much of the country is freezing, the West Coast Swing is steaming.

“The Greatest Show on Grass” returns to TPC Scottsdale, in its usual time slot, serving as a pre-party for the Big Game, and many of golf’s top players are here in the desert to kick off a Super Week.

Just to give you an idea of ​​the collective energy in the sports world this week, look no further than some of the bets offered at Las Vegas sportsbooks. At the Westgate SuperBook, the bet is “Who will have more?” and it pits former WM Phoenix Open champion Nick Taylor’s final round score against Kenneth Walker III’s rushing yards.

And of course, let’s not forget the more than 700,000 fans who will be cheering, jeering, booing, hissing and yes, drinking at TPC Scottsdale this week, especially on the famous par-3 16th hole.

The golf course is a Moorish design by Tom Weiskopf and Jay, redesigned by Weiskopf in 2014. It is a par 71 and extends to almost 7,300 metres. The fairways are wide and the greens are large. The putting surfaces are a Bermudagrass base, overseeded with Poa and Bentgrass. This time of year, the desert greens are usually firm and fast. For years this tournament was a bit of a bird fest and much of it was about putting. Since the new design, it is much more about hitting the ball and this is emphasized more than in most events on Tour.

This week I looked at Strokes Gained: Approach, Off the Tee and Strokes Gained: Ball Striking. I looked at Greens in Regulation, Scrambling, work on the par 4s and 5s, and Hole Proximity from 150-200 yards. We’re not necessarily relying on one set of skills this week, but again, a general tendency to flush the golf ball with the driver and irons. The past winners here are examples of exactly that: Scheffler, Fowler, Matsuyama, Koepka…

The results here are also very ‘sticky’, meaning the same names and types of players perform well here year after year. In fact, the aforementioned Scheffler, Koepka and Matsuyama have each won twice here. Lately I’ve noticed a strong connection with Bay Hill, where they play the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Scheffler has also won there twice. I also looked for correlations at the Philadelphia Cricket Club (Truist Championship 2025), Pinehurst No. 2 (US Open 2024), TPC Craig Ranch (Byron Nelson) and Black Desert Resort, home of the newly added Tour event in Southern Utah that is also a Weiskopf design.

With such a party atmosphere out West this week, I thought it would be appropriate to choose a six-pack for my selection of real winners.

Hideki Matsuyama (26-1)

We noticed that Matsuyama is a two-time champion here at TPC Scottsdale. He also finished second, fourth and eighth. We know he’s an exceptional ball-striker, and he’s also one of the game’s best scramblers, ranking sixth in this field over the last 24 rounds. He also ranks in the top 10 in this area for Hole Proximity from 150-200 yards. The season has also started well for Matsuyama, with two top-15 finishes in two starts. Spoiler alert: He could also be ready to conquer a second green jacket in a few months.

Sam Brandt (36-1)

I wanted to find some of the cheaper contenders this week that aren’t named Scheffler. With the quality of the field I think we’re going to get a quality winner, so I didn’t want to just load up on long shots. Burns certainly fits in nicely here with his history of two recent top-6 finishes. He has placed in the top 5 twice at the Byron Nelson and has had a top 10 finish at both Bay Hill and the 2024 US Open at Pinehurst. In his only start this season he was 27th at the American Express two weeks ago, but he has not missed a single time in ten months and finished last season with fourth, seventh, thirteenth and eleventh places. His short game is off. When the approach game comes out this week, so will Burns at or near the top of the leaderboard.

Kurt Kitayama (77-1)

Kitayama, a UNLV Rebel and Las Vegas resident, is no stranger to desert golf. He has never missed a cut in three attempts here in Scottsdale, with a best finish of eighth. Ball Striking is definitely his strength and he has proven he can beat the best by taking top honors at Bay Hill in the 2023 Arnold Palmer Invitational. He is solid across the board in the stats this week, ranking fourth in this field over the last 24 rounds for SG: Ball Striking.

Keith Mitchell (85-1)

Mitchell is one of the very best in the game off the tee. Last season he finished 12th on Tour in Total Driving, 13th for SG: Off the Tee, 19th in Greens in Regulation and 11th in Ball Striking. He hasn’t missed a cut yet this season, finishing 11th last week at Torrey Pines, leading the field in SG: Tee to Green. He has scored six goals in seven tries here in Phoenix and has finished in the top 10 once, in the top 20 twice and in the top 25 once. He has never missed a cut at Bay Hill and has been in the top 6 twice, finishing seventh at the Cricket Club’s Truist Championship last year.

Christiaan Bezuidenhout (100-1)

We were with the South African at the Farmers Insurance Open last week and he produced a solid week. I think he has a good chance to do that again here. He’s already finished fourth here in Scottsdale and has never missed a cut at Bay Hill, having finished in the top 10 once and in the top 20 three times. Over the last 24 rounds, Bezuidenhout is in the top 10 in this area on the par 4s and par 5s, and is 22nd for SG: Approach.

Haotong Li (105-1)

The 30-year-old from China and eight-time international champion has been on golf’s world stage for a minute, but after finishing in the top 10 in the DP World Tour Race to Dubai standings in 2025, he has earned full-time status on the PGA Tour for the first time. So far so good, as he started the 2026 season with eighth and 11th place finishes in his last two starts. He was seventh in the field last week at Torrey Pines for SG: Tee to Green and eighth in approach. This will be his debut in Phoenix, but I can’t ignore the recent and current form coupled with a triple-digit price.

“>