For the purposes of this survey, we exclude seven players: Kyle Tucker, Bo Bichette, Framber Valdez, Dylan stops, Edwin Diaz, Kyle Schwarber And Ranger Suarez. There is no scenario where either of them accepts the qualifying offer. Most of the remaining six will also decline, but there is at least a slim chance that one of them will accept this. Players and their representatives have had the past two weeks to gauge early demand on the open market, and it’s possible someone from the group has found enough lukewarm interest to consider locking in the strong one-year deal and trying again next season.
Zac Gallen And Michael King are each somewhat buy-low rotation options. Gallen has an average of 4.83 over 33 starts. His strikeout rate has declined in a few consecutive seasons, and he has given up the fourth-most home runs (31) of any pitcher in the MLB. He once looked like a lock for a $100-150MM+ contract. That’s probably off the table anymore, but Gallen should have enough of a track record to reject the QO and at least command a multi-year deal with an opt-out if he wants to test free agency again.
King was a much better pitcher than Gallen the past two seasons. He missed most of his walking year due to a nerve problem in his shoulder. He finished the year healthy, but did not pitch well in September. The Padres weren’t all that confident about him heading into the playoffs, though they’re clearly confident enough in his health to make the QO. Kevin Acee of the San Diego Union-Tribune wrote last week that the Padres expect King will reject the offer and likely won’t meet his asking price on the open market. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $80 million deal for both Gallen and King.
Brandon Woodruff has some parallels with King. He is a high-end starter whose main question is durability. Woodruff finished the season on the injured list with a lat strain after missing all of ’24 while recovering from shoulder surgery. However, he was fantastic for twelve starts in between, and is expected to be healthy in 2026. Woodruff is entering his age-33 season. There is less long-term earning potential if he accepts a one-year offer and tests free agency again at age 34. MLBTR predicts a three-year, $66 million deal.
Trent Grisham And Gleyber Torres were the two mid-level hitters who received the offer. Grisham is coming off a 34 home run season and is the best all-around center fielder on the market. By 2025, he had fallen below the Mendoza mark in three consecutive seasons. Coming into the year, the idea of him getting a qualifying offer would have been laughable. Things can change quickly. We predicted he would decline and take a four-year deal worth $66 million.
Torres was the most surprising QO recipient for those of us at MLBTR. He’s also the only one we expected to sign on our Top 50 free agent list. (We would have predicted a three-year, $40 million contract if he had hit the market without draft compensation attached.) He was a deserving All-Star after an excellent first half, but struggled down the stretch and underwent sports hernia surgery after the season.
Finally that leaves Shota Imanaga. The left-hander only hit free agency because the Cubs declined to activate a three-year, $57 million option and he passed on the two years and $30 million remaining on his deal. The Cubs weren’t willing to make the three-year deal, but are apparently happy to have him back for one season because they made the QO after that. Perhaps they assumed he had a chance to opt out after passing on the $30 million guarantee, even though the QO represents an increase of about $7 million over what he would have made in 2026 if he hadn’t opted out. Imanaga was very good for most of his first two seasons in Chicago, but he became extremely homer-prone over the course of the playoffs. MLBTR predicts a three-year contract worth $45 million.
How does the MLBTR readership expect tomorrow to go? Will someone commit to their 2025 club for one year or will they all remain on the market?
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