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Last year I introduced a new framework for understanding wide receiver play, quarterback decision-making and offensive potential. This framework is based on an XGBOOST model and PFF’s impressive collection of route-level data. Using machine learning and this breadth of PFF data, we can create models with the aim of predicting where a target is should play a certain play.
The resulting metrics, Share of Predicted Targets and Share of Predicted Air Yards, are both more stable than their “actual” counterparts.
2025 regular season recap
Over the course of the season, 87 players emerged as potential breakouts in our model. These 87 players achieved a target share of 20.8%, which was on average 3.0 percentage points higher than a random control group of players with at least 15 routes. A player’s goal ceiling also improved slightly (+1.5 percentage points), as did his goals per route completed (+1.7 percentage points).
In general, throughout each season, this model can identify players who will earn more goals in week N+1.
Potential Breakthroughs: Wild-Card Round
These are players who were open far more often than they were targeted in Week 18. Overall, players who appear on this list see an increase in goals per route and goal share compared to both themselves and all players with similar goal shares. If a team rested its starters in Week 18, that should be strongly taken into consideration.
Josh Whyle and Christian Kirk both had small increases in routes for Week 18, and neither has seen high route participation all season. I would be aware of this in any decision making using this model.
On the other hand, Ladd McConkey and Josh Palmer have experienced significant participation this year and could very well see a boost in goals for their respective playoff games this week.
‘Coach, I Was Open’ review of the 2025 regular season
For this edition, I wanted to look back at two of the bigger “Coach, I Was Open” plays from the past few weeks via the predicted EPA model.
Week 15: WR Ja’Marr Chase, Cincinnati Bengal
In Week 15, the Bengals didn’t score a single point against the Baltimore Ravens, but they could have taken the lead in the second quarter thanks to Ja’Marr Chase – if Joe Burrow had seen him on this play. It was third and nine, and the Bengals had the ball tied at 0-0. The Ravens had a Cover 6, and the Bengals called the perfect play to cut them deep.
Andrei Iosivas and Mike Gesicki both ran “In” routes, taking down the safeties while playing Cover 4, while Ja’Marr Chase ran a deep post route. This is often referred to as a “Pin” concept. Burrow had a perfectly clean pocket and appeared to glance at Chase, but decided not to pull the trigger and instead passed it to Drew Sample for a seven-yard gain.
Chase had a projected EPA of 2.65 for this game, compared to Sample’s -0.11 mark. The play resulted in an EPA of -0.34, and the Bengals would punt and not score for the rest of the game. The Bengals’ season was over at this point, but missed opportunities like this could have huge consequences for both the game and the entire league.
Week 16: WR Troy Franklin, Denver Broncos
Troy Franklin earned an incredibly rare PFF grade of +1.5 “level of play” for this play. For reference, there have been 21,216 snaps received this season and only 97 targets have achieved a +1.5 or better. However, Franklin did not deserve a goal on this play.
The Broncos were losing by 14 points near the end of the third quarter, and a score here would have been critical to their chances of coming back to win this game.
Bo Nix started the game with a clean pocket and no stoppage; Franklin ran an out-and-up against Jarrian Jones. Nix drifted to the right and eventually started sprinting under pressure from Emmanuel Ogbah. This was a very clean pocket for Nix to step into, but instead he applied pressure from the defense rather than avoiding it.
Considering the Broncos’ No. 1-ranked PFF team, this would have been a touchdown had Nix simply not moved or drifted left or center.
This is a great example of how all the pressure isn’t the offensive line’s fault, and how quarterbacks can miss big opportunities by putting pressure on themselves. Per PFF Premium StatsBo Nix has the 10th highest percentage of quarterback assigned pressures.
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