Why Peter Brandt expects Bitcoin (BTC) to fall

Peter Brandt shorts Bitcoin futures after key pattern breakdown. Liquidity over price and Fed moves are creating pressure. $40,000 in sight?

Peter Brandt, a veteran trader with decades of market experience, has taken a short position in Bitcoin futures.

Despite being a long-term holder of BTC, Brandt is trading against it in the short term based on technical signals that suggest further downside is possible.

Broadening pattern indicates risk

Brandt is on the daily chart identified an expanding formation, also called a megaphone pattern. It shows five different swings, with the most recent top nearing $126,000. After this high, Bitcoin moved to a sideways range between $106,000 and $116,000 before falling below the southern limit.

Currently, the price is around $109,500, after dropping 2% in the past day and 2% in the past week. This below-range breakdown supports Brandt’s bearish stance in the near term. If the move continues, the potential price levels include $97,000 and $84,721.

Order book shows liquidity over price

Market data from Coinglass shows that most of the liquidity in the order book is above the current price. The $113,000 to $116,000 range contains large clusters of limit orders and stop-losses. Rekt Schermer posted,

All $BTC liquidity is above the current price.

Only one pump and shorts are wiped down.

Is the V-inversion loading now? pic.twitter.com/57OzobYCei

— Rekt Schermer (@rektfencer) October 31, 2025

A sudden increase could lead to short liquidations, which could lead to a rapid price increase. Below current levels, there are fewer large orders, which could weaken support on the way down.

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Notably, Bitcoin has a history of major declines after reaching the upper limit of its long-term trend channel. Past rejections have resulted in declines of 84% and 77%. The final chart shows another rejection near the same trendline, with a potential downside of 73% if the pattern holds.

Straight fencer added,

“Every time Bitcoin rejects this line, it dumps 70%… I hope you’re ready for $40,000 worth of BTC.”

A movement towards that zone would correspond to the lower boundary of the multi-year channel.

Interest rate cuts lead to market reaction

The recent 0.25% interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve led to volatility in the markets. Bitcoin briefly fell below $108,000 after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell’s comments, as traders reacted to the policy change. Some describe it as a classic “Buy the rumor, sell the news” event.

Meanwhile, on-chain data shows declining BTC balances on exchanges, indicating reduced supply. As CryptoPotato reported, large transactions above $1 million have also hit a two-month high, indicating continued interest from large holders. However, assets remain under pressure as near-term uncertainty persists.