Oh, what a night! Not in late December 1963, but the same season of four, in January 2026, when Newcastle United beat the best side in the Netherlands and gave ourselves a realistic chance of reaching the last 16 of the Champions League without having to navigate a home-and-away play-off.
Our fate is in our hands when the Magpies fly to Paris on Wednesday for the eighth and final match of the Swiss league stage.
Win, lose or draw, the players have already guaranteed that this campaign’s continental antics will not come to a disastrous end against the reigning European champions.
The decisive defeat of PSV Eindhoven ensured that the adventure took even more twists and turns.
After complaining this week about UEFA’s seeding system for saving the fattest clubs while leaving crumbs of comfort for the unchosen, I’m starting to warm up to the money-driven tournament.
Newcastle United are seventh, with 13 points and a goal difference of plus-10 in the 36-team table. Let the enormity of that achievement sink in as I add some background information.
Before the first round of Swiss-format matches (but after the lengthy qualifying phase, which started on July 8 when teams including 1979 finalists Malmö met Iberia Tbilisi) the 36 teams were sorted into four pots of nine.
Top of the shop, because they are the holders, were PSG, next week’s opponents in the Parc de Princes. In 36th place was Kairat Almaty, the only team to survive three qualifying rounds and a play-off draw to reach the gold-paved streets.
The ranking of Kazakhstan’s best as the weakest team in the Champions League proper seems justified. They have one point and a goal difference of minus-14. In a strange twist of fate, their last match is against the Woolwich in North London. That’s the same team that has won every game so far. We can only pray that Almaty causes a huge upset. . . if only to hear the commentators say about Arteta: “Look at his face; just look at his face!”
What about NUFC? They were placed in the fourth pot and ranked 34th, which explains my mixed feelings about UEFA’s effectively rigged tournaments.
In 2023-2024 we were dumped into the deadliest Group of Death since the Grim Reaper first wielded his scythe. Our coefficient was so low that it was almost underground after twenty years without participating in the Champions League. PSG, AC Milan and Borussia Dortmund, regular contenders, probably underestimated the Mags, at least initially. We gave them plenty of reasons to reconsider their assessment, but in the end the status quo was reinforced, with no little help from the match officials in Paris.
The format changes in 2024-2025 ended the possibility of any more Groups of Death, although I doubt that was UEFA’s motivation. Under the Swiss format, each team plays against two rivals from each of the four pots. In theory, each team in Pot One should win the six matches against opponents from the lower pots, while perhaps sharing the spoils with their Pot One rivals. Conversely, none of the sad players in Pot Four, ranked from 28th to 36th, should finish in the top 24 after eight rounds.
Because football is a somewhat illogical game, that is not the way things develop.
United have surpassed their ranking of 34. Not only did they overachieve, they blew it completely out of the water. Realistically, we won’t finish this stage lower than 15th. Big thanks to Jamie Smith for running the permutations in his excellent match report on the PSV match. He says we will play at home in the second leg of every play-off match and that is good enough for me.
We are higher than five teams from Pot One.
We are ranked higher than eight teams from Pot Two (Arsenal being the exceptions).
We are higher than eight teams from Pot Three (Spurs, who qualified for the tournament by beating Salfords in a dreadful Europa League final, have 14 points).
The next best teams from Pot Four are Galatasaray and Qarabag, in 17th and 18th respectively, with 10 points.
As for the other minnows, Monaco has nine points and cannot overtake us, Copenhagen and Athletic Bilbao have eight, Pafos and Union SG have six.
What the Champions League rankings will look like on Saturday, January 24, 2026, prior to Wednesday’s final round:
UEFA considers us a small boy, but they cannot deny that we are the biggest fish in our pool.
If we right the wrongs of 2024 and beat PSG next week, if all other results are in our favor, we can qualify for the Round of 16 in third place. That’s obviously not going to happen, but a top eight finish is certainly a possibility.
Injuries and workload have taken a heavy toll, just like they did two seasons ago. The turmoil of last summer’s transfer window is still palpable, but not in a good way. One or two of our most influential players are performing below their optimal level.
Despite that, we are level with PSG on points and goal difference. They scored 20 against our 16. That’s why they’re sixth, while we’re seventh. They have already lost twice, at home against Bayern Munich and in Lisbon against Sporting.
We beat Union SG and Bilbao, who are ranked higher than us in Pot Four.
We defeated PSV convincingly and lost to Marseille in Pot Three, after leading at half-time in the south of France.
We beat Benfica and drew Leverkusen against Bayer from Pot Two.
Barcelona, our other opponents from Pot One, were fortunate to beat us at St James’ Park. PSG need not be feared.
Since October 4, 2023, a lot of water has passed under the Tyne Bridge. On that unforgettable evening we humiliated the French champions thanks to goals from Miguel Almiron, Dan Burn, Sean Longstaff and Fabian Schar. Who said 27 months is a long time in football?
Almiron and Longstaff have left, thanks for all they contributed to the Black and White cause. Schar is on the long road to recovery after surgery on an injured ankle. And the Big Man from Blyth? Don’t count on him making a special guest appearance in the City of Light.
#Newcastle #United #biggest #overachievers #Champions #League