Keaton Wagler, an unheralded recruit, had played so well for the No. 9 Illini early in the season that some wondered if he might be a top-10 pick by the time NBA Draft day arrives.
After Saturday that is no longer a question. Wagler steamrolled then-No. 4 Purdue’s gym and hung 46 points in the Boilermakers’ 88-82 win at Illinois, all the while looking like someone waiting in line at the DMV. The 6-foot-1 guard calmly made 9 of 11 3-pointers — almost all off the dribble — while expressionlessly burning up all the pick-and-roll coverage the Boilermakers threw at him.
(Quick side note: While many of you will look at his last name and want to say it “WAAAAAG-ler” with the loudest Chicago accent possible, it is actually pronounced “WAHG-ler,” rhyming with “log” or “Franz Wagner,” and certainly not rhyming with “tongue-waggler.”)
Perhaps the most impressive part, however, was the final five minutes, when the Boilermakers finally got tired of Wagler’s cooking and started putting two on the ball against all of his pick-and-rolls. Wagler, who didn’t make a single bad shot all game, calmly found teammates and put up four consecutive wide-open 3s as Illinois scored 14 points on its final five possessions before Purdue began to foul. He then finished off the Boilermakers with a kill-shot floater and made two game-icing free throws.
Off the dribble, Wagler generates tremendous space with his crossovers and side steps, and has excellent footwork on his shot. He repeatedly roasted Purdue’s bigs on stepbacks like this:
Going downhill, Wagler looks very upright on the ball, so you would think ball security would be an issue. But his turnover rate is slow (he only had three on Saturday) and he can get to his spots in the paint. He uses the threat of a step back 3 to put drives in the paint and then cut to the cup, especially when he can get big chances on an island and use the threat of his deep shooting ability to take them far out of their comfort zone:
The patience on the dime was noticeable. Wagler already had 41 points when he made this crosscourt kickout pass late in the shot clock with Illinois trailing; no one would have batted an eyelash if he had forced a wild shot instead, but he wouldn’t do it:
(Police on shot clock violation: Ignore the scoring bug. The shooter released it with 0.1 on the shot clock above the backboard.)
While Wagler’s passing is more functional than spectacular at this point, what stands out is the simple willingness to make the right play time and time again. He’s averaging three assists for every turnover as a freshman in an elite conference, and also on a team that has played a relatively tough non-conference slate. (Early season college statistics can be misleading as power schools sometimes schedule several tune-up games against Shambolic State; however, Illinois has already played out-of-conference powerhouses like Texas Tech, Alabama, UConn and Tennessee).
Are there any questions? Certainly. Wagler has a thin frame and could be pushed at the next level, especially on defense. He’s a B athlete, and his event creation rate (1.3 steals and 0.5 blocks per 100) is shockingly low for an elite prospect, with just two shares (steals plus blocks) in his last seven games. His foul rate is also on the high side for a guard.
Additionally, Wagler’s 52.5 percent shooting on 2s is unremarkable, and with his shooting form, making pull-ups off the dribble can be a challenge.
On the other hand, Wagler has rebounded at a plus level despite his thin frame (10.2 percent, though strangely he had zero against Purdue), and he’s making mistakes at a high rate despite shooting more 3s than 2s.
Overall, he’s a new gem in an increasingly promising draft class, giving off a whiff of Tyrese Haliburton as a potentially elite offensive weapon. Wagler can function as a deep shooter (43.5 percent from 3 on high volume, and 82.6 percent from the line) who can be as comfortable lunching on the bounce as he can on the catch, and someone who can make defenses pay for aggressively crowding his shot.
It’s incomprehensible that he entered the year as the 261st recruit in his class, but he certainly won’t end there. After Saturday’s blowout, there can be no doubt: Wagler is a surefire lottery pick for 2026.
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