Why Bitcoin’s Rising HODL Cohorts Are a Bearish Signal This Time

Near-term coin activity remains near all-time lows, highlighting weak participation from new buyers across the network.

Bitcoin faced renewed selling pressure on Tuesday, briefly sending its price down to $62,700 after a 5% decline, as macroeconomic concerns continued to weigh on investor sentiment.

New data suggests that BTC remains in a defensive phase as capital continues to leave the network and supply steadily ages with no signs of renewed accumulation.

Peak buyers now frozen

Realized Cap, which measures the total value of all coins at the price they last moved at, has fallen for the second month in a row. According to the latest analysis by Axel Adler Junior, this is the case indicates that capital continues to leave the network instead of flowing into it.

The 30-day Realized Cap Net Position Change is currently -2.26% and has remained negative for several weeks, meaning coins are either transferring below their cost basis or incoming capital is insufficient to offset continued outflows. The realized cap peaked at about $1.127 trillion on November 26, 2025, and has since fallen to about $1.094 trillion – a compression of about $33 billion.

Daily net position changes continue to fluctuate around zero or remain negative, while no new capital enters the market. As long as the 30-day Realized Cap metric remains below zero, the network will remain in net outflow mode. A return to positive territory is the first condition necessary for a shift towards accumulation.

Furthermore, the HODL Waves data revealed a sharp structural change in the coin age distribution, which is consistent with this defensive regime. Coins that last moved 3 to 6 months ago now make up about 26% of Bitcoin’s supply, up from 19% earlier this month. These coins were usually purchased around the last market peak and have not moved since.

The share of Bitcoin held for six to 12 months has grown to just over 20%, while coins moved in the past month make up less than 10% of the supply. This shows that, according to Adler Junior, few new buyers are entering the market. Most circulating coins were purchased at higher prices and are now at a loss, making holders reluctant to sell and effectively keeping the supply in place.

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The growth of older cohorts does not indicate strategic accumulation, but rather forced ownership due to adverse price conditions. The structure would only undergo a meaningful change if coins start migrating to longer-term cohorts in the 3-6 month period without causing renewed selling pressure, in addition to a measurable return from short-term activity.

The well-known bear signal is back

Against the backdrop of bleeding capital, an important technical signal that appeared at the end of the last Bitcoin bear markets is once again beginning to form. According to analyst Ali Martinez, a possible death cross on Bitcoin’s three-day chart is expected to occur in late February.

In previous cycles, this signal consistently appeared just before the last major drop. With the cryptocurrency still 50% below its October 2025 peak, Martinez warned that a similar setup could open the door to even more downsides.