TLDR:
- Bitcoin’s cycle bottoms have become shallower each time, from -92.7% in 2011 to -68.5% in 2022.
- BTC ($67,982.00 · Live) is currently 47% below its October 2025 ATH of $126,000, with Fear and Greed in single digits.
- For the first time in Bitcoin history, green drawdown days near record highs are growing faster than red days.
- Comparing the 2025 sell-off to 2018 may be the wrong framework, as structural data points to a tapering asset.
Bitcoin’s latest sell-off has revived fears of a prolonged bear market, but historical data on the downturn suggests that this cycle may not follow the same path as the last.
Bitcoin is currently trading about 47% below its October 2025 all-time high of $126,000. Fear and greed measures consist of one number.
Yet fifteen years of price decline data, compared to the present, paints a different picture than many traders expect.
Previous cycles had much deeper and longer drawdowns
In 2011, Bitcoin collapsed 92.7% from its peak. Nearly every day of his young existence was spent deep in relapse territory.
The 2013-2015 cycle followed with a 72% decline, adding more than 1,500 days of brutal losses to the historical record.
By 2017, Bitcoin had recorded over 2,500 drawdown days, and red still dominated the distribution chart. The 2018 bear market then pushed losses to 78.4%, amplifying the same deep correction range between -60% and -80%. Those cycles defined what analyst Sminston With described as “the old Bitcoin.”
However, the critical pattern in all these cycles is one of gradual improvement. Each successive bottom came in shallower than the previous one.
The sequence goes like this: -92.7%, -87%, -84%, -77% and then -68.5% in 2022. That consistent upward shift in the floor is not coincidental.
The current sell-off, which is around -47%, has not yet reached any of the previous cycle bottoms. That alone sets this moment apart from what traders experienced in 2018 or 2015, even if the sentiment seems similar.
Structural shifts in the way Bitcoin spends its time
After the 2021 bull cycle, there was a measurable change in the drawdown distribution. The green bars, which represent days within 0% to -15% of an all-time high, started growing faster than any previous period. Bitcoin simply spent more time near its highs than ever before.
Sminston With noted that “green-white oscillations are replacing deep red declines,” referring to the shift away from the severe, prolonged corrections that once dominated Bitcoin’s history.
The transition zone between -15% and -35% has also grown, with Bitcoin spending almost 90 days there after the October 2025 peak.
This does not mean that further disadvantages are impossible. Some market participants are still asking for $40,000 or even $25,000.
However, the data shows that Bitcoin’s worst declines have become structurally shallower, cycle after cycle, and the time spent near record highs has increased.
The question the data raises is simple. If each cycle bottom has become less severe than the last, and if Bitcoin is spending more time in the green regime than ever before, then comparing 2025 to 2018 could simply be the wrong framework at this point.
The post Why Bitcoin’s 47% Drop from $126,000 Isn’t the Crisis It Seems to Be appeared first on Blockonomi.
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