Why a late runner should win the future of Los Alamitos

Since the $200,000 Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) moved from Hollywood Park to its current home in Los Alamitos Race Trackthe 1 1/16-mile Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier was unkind to pacers.

That could come as a surprise, as the Los Alamitos Futurity usually draws a small field, which should be conducive to gate-to-wire winners. But guess what? In eleven editions of the Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos, only one winner – Wynstock in 2023 – managed to take the lead in any of the first three calls. And even Wynstock wasn’t technically a gate-to-wire winner: he set the pace, but got in the thick of it before fighting back to win.

I expect this trend to continue in 2025. Saturday’s Los Alamitos Futurity saw six entries, and there’s plenty of pace on paper. The stage seems set for another runner who is not fast enough to prevail.

Submissions: Los Alamitos Future (G2)

LOS ALAMITOS RACE COURSE, Saturday December 13, 2025, Race 8

Grade II
1 1/16m
Filthy
$200,000
2 years
4:00 PM (local)

One of the speedsters is number 1 Recognizemeplz . He made his debut in a five-furlong special weight at Santa Anita in June, setting the pace before finishing second to future Best Pal (G3) winner Desert Gate. Then, after a 4 1/2 month layoff, Acknowledgemeplz returned to action in a 6 1/2 furlong special weight at Santa Anita, leading all the way to defeat Blacksmith #4 by three-quarters of a length.

Recognize that Meplz wants to sprint for the lead as he breaks off the rail, but can he carry his speed over 1 1/16 miles? His pedigree (by Bucchero out of a Yes It’s True mare) is sprint oriented, so I’m not sure Acknowledgemeplz has the stamina to run that far. Especially when he gets into an early speed duel with #6 Conqueror .

Captivator has made two starts in the first $62,500 optional claimers. Both times he set the pace. In his debut, he dueled through fractions of :22.06 and :44.48 before tiring and finishing second. In his second start, he shook loose at the front with splits of :22.19 and :44.90 before riding clear and dominating by 10 1/4 lengths.

Captivator wore blinders in his first two starts, but will run without them in the Los Alamitos Futurity. Dropping the blinders may help him relax and sit behind Acknowledgemeplz. But that’s not a given, especially since Captivator has significantly faster Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings than Acknowledgemeplz. A speed duel may be in the offing.

#2 Origin is another potential pacer. Provenance, a beautifully bred son of perennial leading sire Into Mischief out of Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Monomoy Girl, was last seen leading, winning a six-furlong special weight at Santa Anita.
All this speed should ensure that #3 Litmus test gets the trip he needs to win the Los Alamitos Futurity.

Litmus Test is conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won eight of the eleven editions of the Los Alamitos Futurity at Los Alamitos. The son of Kentucky Derby (G1) winner Nyquist made his debut in a 5 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Del Mar over the summer, in which he was no more than 1 1/2 lengths off the pace before rallying to win by three-quarters of a length.

The Litmus Test then faced stiff competition in three consecutive Class 1 races. In the seven-furlong Del Mar Futurity (G1) he estimated three lengths off the pace and made a move mid-race before weakening to finish fourth. In the 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Futurity (G1), he set a slow pace for six furlongs before tiring to finish third by five lengths against likely 2-year-old male champion Ted Noffey.

Litmus Test returned to midpack closing tactics in the 1 1/16 mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) and delivered his best performance yet. He fell 3 1/2 lengths off the early pace before pushing ahead to finish fourth by 1 3/4 lengths to Ted Noffey. He missed second place by only three-quarters of a length.

The Los Alamitos Futurity field has become much easier than the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which should help Litmus Test return to the winner’s circle. He’s had three sharp workouts since the Breeders’ Cup, and of note, he’s reuniting with handsome jockey Juan Hernandez for the first time since his debut. According to Brisnet stats, Hernandez and Baffert have teamed up to win at a lofty 37% rate over the past two months.

I expect Litmus Test to settle behind Acknowledgemeplz, Captivator and Provenance before launching a winning rally on the long home stretch of Los Alamitos.

For second place I try number 4 Blacksmith another Baffert intern. The son of Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner Liam’s Map made his debut in a 6 1/2 furlong special weight at Santa Anita, in which he was beaten early by Acknowledgemeplz before closing to finish second by three-quarters of a length.

A month later, Blacksmith faltered as the 2-5 favorite in a similar 6 1/2-furlong girls special weight at Del Mar, dropping to the back of the pack before passing a pair of tired rivals to finish fifth. It is unclear what went wrong, but wet weather wreaked havoc on the Del Mar racing schedule at the time and Blacksmith worked five furlongs in a 1:00 4/5 just three days in advance.

Blacksmith bounced back from that defeat with two quick five-furlong workouts at Santa Anita, the last on Sunday, six days before the Los Alamitos Futurity. He was bred to appreciate 1 1/16 miles, and I’m optimistic he will rebound tremendously even as he moves up in class.