While he sits at the bottom of the NHL on American Thanksgiving, history is not on the side of the Calgary Flames – The Win Column

American Thanksgiving has always been an important marker in the NHL season. Almost every season, most of the teams that are in the playoffs on the last Thursday of November are the same teams that make the playoffs in April. That’s not great news for the Calgary Flames, who are sitting Currently 32nd in the NHL in points percentage.

Has the team’s position on American Thanksgiving generally been a good indicator of where they will finish in April? Let’s see.

Flames on Thanksgiving since the lockout

Let’s go back in time and see where the Flames have ranked league-wide every Thanksgiving since the 2004-05 lockout, and then where they were at the end of the season, and whether they made the playoffs. Bold rankings indicate the team was in a playoff spot.

The 2020–21 and 2012–13 seasons both had changed start dates, so the Thanksgiving benchmark did not apply in those seasons.

In total, the Flames have competed in 19 full seasons since the lockout, including this season. Of those 19 seasons, they have been in the playoffs at Thanksgiving nine times, or about 47% of the time. The Flames are hovering around 50%, who would have thought that?

Looking at the reverse, the Flames have been out of the American Thanksgiving playoffs a total of 10 times (including this season), or about 53% of the time. It’s also worth noting that the Flames’ current ranking of 31st on the American Thanksgiving is their lowest since the lockout. The next lowest would be in 2016-17 and 2015-16, where they ranked 28th on Thanksgiving.

Since the lockout, the Flames were out of the playoffs on Thanksgiving, but finished the season in the playoffs a total of three times. They succeeded in 2006-2007, 2007-2008 and 2016-2017. No example is better than the 2016-17 season, where they went from third place in the NHL on Thanksgiving to a playoff spot by the end of the season. So how did that team do?

Flames 2016/2017: The 10-game winning streak

Thanksgiving 28th | End of year: 15th

If you’re the Flames, you’re currently looking at the 2016-2017 season for inspiration. That team similarly found itself in the NHL’s cellar on America’s Thanksgiving, ranking 28th in the NHL by points percentage with a 9-12-1 record.

That team showed signs of improvement right after Thanksgiving. They posted a 7-1-1 record immediately after the holidays, including a six-game winning streak starting in December. By Christmas, the Flames had risen from 28th in the NHL on Thanksgiving to a wild-card spot and just two points out of a divisional playoff spot.

They would remain in the playoff bubble until their infamous 10-game winning streak in February/March, which is still tied for the longest winning streak in franchise history. Ultimately, the Flames finished the year in the first wild card spot with a record of 45-33-4. After Thanksgiving, they posted a 36-21-3 record, which equates to a .625 points percentage.

Last place was a death sentence

What about the NHL? How often does the last team (in points percentage) in the NHL make the playoffs on Thanksgiving? Not often.

Phew, if history is any indication, the Flames’ hopes of making the playoffs are slim to none. Only one team since the lockout has gone from last place on Thanksgiving to the playoffs: the 2007-08 Washington Capitals. That team made a dramatic turnaround, going from last place to 12th in the NHL and third in their conference by the end of the season. They ultimately lost in seven games in the first round.

Other than the Capitals team, no one at the bottom on Thanksgiving has come close to making the playoffs. In fact, none of the other 17 teams even managed to escape the bottom 10 of the league by the end of the season. The next best team would be the 2009–10 Hurricanes, who finished 24th and eight points out of the play-offs.

A choice with a high level of depth is almost a guarantee

Now some good news for those hoping for a high draft pick this season. Let’s say you’re lucky. Of the last 18 teams to finish last on the American Thanksgiving, 17 finished in the top seven of the NHL draft. The only outlier is of course the Capitals, who made the playoffs.

Eight of the seventeen finished in the top three, which would be the highest draft pick in Flames history. In other words, 94.4% of the time the last-place team gets a top-seven pick on Thanksgiving, and 47% of the time the last-place team ends up in the top three. For a team that has never picked higher than fourth, you take those chances all day, every day.

On the way to a lottery spot

A month and a half into the 2025/26 season, the Calgary Flames currently rank last in the NHL in terms of points percentage. If history is any indication, the Flames have a better than 90% chance of landing a top seven pick in this year’s draft, based on their current position on American Thanksgiving.

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