Bangladesh’s latest general election, the first since the July 2024 violent unrest that ended Sheikh Hasina’s long rule, will provide a decisive mandate for the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), led by Tarique Rahman. The outcome marks a sharp political turn in Dhaka and offers New Delhi an opportunity to recalibrate ties with a neighbor that has been one of its closest regional partners for decades.
Rahman’s victory also completes a dramatic personal comeback. The 60-year-old son of former President Ziaur Rahman and former Prime Minister Khaleda Zia returned to Bangladesh after nearly 17 years in exile following the death of his mother in December 2025. The Awami League, led by Sheikh Hasina, was unable to contest the election after its registration was suspended, leaving the BNP as the dominant force.
Who is Tarique Rahman and how did he return to power?
Tarique Rahman is the eldest son of Khaleda Zia, who led Bangladesh as prime minister three times. Rahman formally took over as chairman of BNP in December 2025, having previously served as acting chairman during his exile.
Rahman has long been a polarizing figure. During the BNP-led coalition government between 2001 and 2006, he was widely described as the party’s de facto power center, operating from Hawa Bhaban, often referred to as a ‘shadow PMO’ in Bangladesh’s political discourse.
His return to Dhaka last year was marked by large public rallies and a campaign aimed at political change after the collapse of the Hasina government in mid-2024.
How did India react to the election results?
India moved quickly to engage the new leadership. Prime Minister Narendra Modi congratulated Rahman on his victory and said the result reflected “the confidence of the people of Bangladesh” in his leadership.
“I extend my warmest congratulations to Mr. Tarique Rahman for leading the BNP to a decisive victory in the parliamentary elections in Bangladesh,” Prime Minister Modi said in a message on X.
He added that India would continue to support a “democratic, progressive and inclusive Bangladesh” and expressed hope to work closely with the new government to strengthen bilateral ties and promote shared development goals.
The early outreach was seen by political analysts as an attempt by New Delhi to establish lines of communication before China or Pakistan could shape Dhaka’s external involvement.
Why does India keep such a close eye on Bangladesh’s foreign policy?
India has been closely watching the elections in Bangladesh as changes in Dhaka could have direct implications for India’s regional geopolitics and internal security. Under Sheikh Hasina, India and Bangladesh enjoyed one of their most stable periods of cooperation, covering trade, transit, border management and security coordination.
India’s main concern now is whether a Rahman-led government will adopt a stance less aligned with Delhi’s interests. Of particular concern is the risk that Bangladesh will become closer to Pakistan and China, potentially changing the regional balance of power in South Asia.
The concern shown by Pakistan in the ongoing Men’s T20 World Cup for Bangladesh has raised eyebrows and given New Delhi some things to think about.
However, with Rahman’s victory, those concerns may diminish somewhat as the BNP is set to form the government without Jamaat-e-Islami as a coalition partner. New Delhi traditionally views Jamaat’s participation in the government as destabilizing to bilateral ties.
However, China’s presence in Bangladesh remains significant thanks to major infrastructure projects, including port modernization. Indian analysts have consistently flagged these projects for their potential strategic implications in the Bay of Bengal.
What are the concerns regarding borders and internal security?
India and Bangladesh share a 4,100-kilometer border that passes through densely populated and politically sensitive regions. Border management and illegal migration have become major political issues, especially with assembly elections in West Bengal and Assam this year.
Under Hasina, Dhaka was seen as more willing to cooperate in reducing illegal border crossings and tackling cross-border crime. But Indian authorities say infiltration attempts have increased since her fall in July 2024.
How decisively Rahman’s government acts on border control, drug smuggling and cross-border violence will therefore determine New Delhi’s assessment of the new dispensation.
Why is the Hindu minority issue important for India?
After Hasina was ousted, attacks on Hindus (who make up about 8 percent of the country’s population) in Bangladesh increased. India says at least 23 Hindus have been killed since then.
While Bangladesh’s interim government, led by Muhammad Yunus, acknowledged the deaths and violence, they said many incidents stemmed from non-communal disputes. However, India has publicly expressed its concerns and called for stricter protection measures for minorities.
On that front, Rahman has promised security for all communities, but Indian officials are likely to keep a close eye on results on the ground given the BNP’s past associations with conservative political elements.
How important is trade in the India-Bangladesh relationship?
Trade remains a stabilizing factor. Bilateral trade is around $13-14 billion annually, with India running a surplus of nearly $9-9.5 billion in FY24 and FY25.
Bangladesh is heavily dependent on Indian cotton yarn, which accounts for more than 80 percent of imports for the ready-made garment sector, a backbone of the economy.
While Dhaka could look to diversify suppliers, analysts say the new government is unlikely to immediately disrupt supply chains, especially as economic stability looks set to be restored after months of political turmoil.
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