Paul Toboni’s first offseason as Nationals President of Baseball Operations was intriguing. He made a lot of moves, but most of them were with the future in mind. That’s a smart strategy, but part of me wonders where this team will be in 2026. They won’t be good, but I worry about the possibility of bottoming out.
There are plenty of holes in this roster and Toboni hasn’t offered any solutions, at least for 2026. We wrote about how the Nats need to make a few more additions before the season starts. It seems risky to me to leave such glaring gaps. However, Paul Toboni has not been afraid to take risks this season.
The one free agent signing he made is a good example of that. Instead of going with a proven MLB innings-eater to fill the back of the rotation, Toboni took an interesting flier. He signed Foster Griffin to a one-year, $5.5 million deal. Griffin had a dominant three-year run in Japan, but he’s 30 years old and only has eight MLB Innings under his belt.
However, there are reasons to believe this could be a strong signing. Griffin added a few new pitches in Japan and became one of the better arms in the NPB. His last few seasons in Japan compare favorably to Shota Imanaga, who was a trailblazer in the Cubs’ rotation arm. The projection systems actually think Griffin will be solid, with Fangraphs project an ERA season of 4.11.
If Griffin can give you an ERA of around 4 for 150 innings, that would be a good contract. However, he is an unproven soft-tosser and the Nats are confident he will be a solid starter in the heart of their rotation. This is a big risk, even for a reconstruction team.
Toboni’s handling of the bullpen this season has also been risky. Last season the Nats had the worst bullpen ERA in all of baseball at 5.59. Still, Toboni traded away the Nats’ best reliever and hasn’t signed a bullpen arm in free agency. He has been active in the waiver wire area and hopes for internal development.
This plan might work, and it’s worth a try. Many of the best bullpens aren’t the ones with the biggest names. Relievers are highly volatile assets. You can create a solid bullpen out of thin air, and that’s exactly what Toboni plans to do. The Nats have some promising weapons that Toboni and the coaching staff will look to develop.
I will be keeping a close eye on the bullpen battle in Spring Training. I’m curious to see which pitchers come out. There will probably be a few arms who have added velocity or adjusted their pitch mix. The question is which one.
Finally, the biggest move Paul Toboni made this season was also a risky one. Trading MacKenzie Gore was not a risky move, but the returns are high. I actually think sticking with Gore would have been a risky option. However, the Nats decided to take a high-risk package from the Texas Rangers.
Instead of signing a deal with a real headliner, Toboni opted for quantity over quality. Most of the players in the deal are several years away from the major leagues. The three key players in the deal are a 19-year-old, a 20-year-old and a pitcher who will miss two straight seasons due to injury.
If these guys hit, Toboni will look like a genius and the Nats farm will be one of the best in baseball. However, there is also a chance that he will regret not making a deal with more proven commodities. Even to potential customers, these guys pose a high risk.
Overall, Toboni has made some moves he may regret. However, he could also look very smart. Either way, these deals aren’t shots in the dark either. They are part of a real strategy and long-term vision. He trusts that he and the coaches will develop these players and get the best out of them.
A lot of these moves make me nervous, but they also make me excited. Let me know which move makes you most nervous in the comments. What’s a move you really like and what move do you think Toboni might regret? It’s been an interesting offseason and I’m excited to see it play out.
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