IU basketball will look to bounce back from a disastrous 72-68 home loss to Northwestern when it hosts Michigan State on Sunday at Simon Skjodt Assembly Hall. The Spartans have won three in a row, beating Purdue 76-74 on Thursday night at Mackey Arena.
Sunday’s tipoff is set for 3:45 PM ET on CBS:
Tuesday’s loss to Northwestern in the NCAA Tournament could come as a blow to Indiana, but the Hoosiers have a huge opportunity to secure a quad-one victory this weekend.
In a rematch of a Jan. 13 game that lasted nearly 30 minutes, Indiana hosts Michigan State on Sunday in Bloomington. At 13-4 in Big Ten play, the Spartans are looking for a top-four Big Ten finish and a triple bye in the 2026 Big Ten Tournament at the United Center in Chicago.
THE FIRST MATCH
Indiana was tied at 53 against Michigan State at the Breslin Center in the first game between the two programs before the Spartans closed the game on a 28-7 run for an easy 21-point win.
Points off turnovers were a big key to victory for Tom Izzo’s team. Indiana committed 14 turnovers against the Spartans for 29 points.
Michigan State also comfortably won the fast-break points battle 25-12, a number that is a major concern for Indiana. The Hoosiers have failed to score in transition lately, totaling just nine fast-break points in the past five games.
The Hoosiers were also thoroughly dominated on the front court in the first game. Reed Bailey finished with five points, seven rebounds and four turnovers in 18 minutes before fouling out at the Breslin Center. Sam Alexis had six points and no rebounds in 16 minutes.
The combination of Jaxon Kohler and Carson Cooper in Michigan State’s frontcourt, meanwhile, combined for 23 points and 17 rebounds.
The Spartans also dominated on the glass, hitting 48.1 percent of their missed shots and scoring 11 second-chance points. The second-chance point differential was a nightmare for Indiana in the three-game losing streak. The Hoosiers have been outscored 42-6 in second-chance points in their last three games and Michigan State is well-equipped to dominate on the board.
Michigan State point guard Jeremy Fears Jr. was also great in the first game. The Fear was dominant offensively in the first half, scoring 19 points in 16 minutes. In the second half, Fears showed his game and provided seven assists. He finished with 23 points, 10 assists, four rebounds and two steals and committed six fouls in 33 minutes.
PACE-FREE PREVIEW
All statistics are for Big Ten games only and will be updated through Thursday.
Michigan State is an elite defensive team and ranks third in the Big Ten in points allowed per possession. Indiana scored just 0.93 points per possession in the first game, a performance they will need to improve significantly to make Sunday’s game competitive.
The Spartans are the Big Ten’s best defensive team and also rank second in 2-point field goal defense at 48.2. Indiana will need a strong shooting performance if it wants to clear up the upset. The Hoosiers shot 32.3 percent on 3s at the Breslin Center. In conference wins, IU shoots 38.7 percent from distance; in his Big Ten losses: 31.2 percent.
However, the main concern should be Indiana’s defensive recovery and finding a way to provide more resistance to the defense. Big Ten teams with an inside presence feast on IU on the boards and also find it far too easy to get easy looks at the rim.
Michigan State is hitting 37.1 percent of its missed shots in conference play and already had an offensive rebound rate of nearly 50 percent in the first meeting. If Indiana doesn’t find a way to shore things up on the defensive lines, it will likely be a long afternoon.
THE BOTTOM LINE
The KenPom projection has Michigan State leading by four points with a 36 percent chance of a Hoosier win. Bart Torvik projects a one-point victory for the Spartans and a 47 percent chance of an IU win.
The atmosphere around these two teams could not have been further apart on Sunday afternoon. Michigan State appears to be gaining steam as the NCAA tournament approaches. The Spartans were blown out by Wisconsin and responded with three straight wins against UCLA, Ohio State and Purdue.
Indiana, meanwhile, was blown out by Illinois and Purdue, but collapsed against Northwestern earlier this week in Bloomington.
How the Hoosiers respond on Sunday should tell a lot about where this group is mentally. There’s still something to play for now that the NCAA Tournament isn’t completely out of the picture, but it’s going to take a full 40-minute effort and toughness on the glass to pull off an upset.
Michigan State has three Big Ten road losses — at Nebraska, at Minnesota and at Wisconsin — but the Hoosiers will have to play at a level they haven’t reached lately to leave Assembly Hall with a win.
(Photo credit: IU Athletics)
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