What they say: We’re not talking about Bryce Harper | Baseball prospectus

Translated by Fernando Battaglini

Greetings, readers of What they say. I’m happy to be here to talk to you about the Phillies infield, as I promised last week. But first we need to discuss what Dave Dombrowski and Phillies management No they said about Bryce Harper.

As you may have noticed, we live in extremely absurd times. Even like that, Bryce Harper trade speculation over the past two weeks really stands out.

Here’s what Dombrowski had to say about Harper when we spoke with him earlier this month. A reporter asked a very reasonable question about whether Harper’s 2025 season – an excellent season, but one that fell short of his prime – marked a phase of decline for a player who had just turned 32 years old. This was Dombrowski’s response:

“He’s still a quality player. He’s still a star player. He hasn’t had a great season like he has in the past. And I think we’ll just know if he becomes an elite player again or if he just continues to be good. If you look at the league, I think… Freddie Vrijman: He’s a really good player, right? That remains the case. Is it elite as before? Probably not at the same level. Freddie is a great player, and for me that’s Bryce. Can he reach the next level again? I really don’t know. He is the one who will determine it, more than anyone else.”

Dombrowski also noted that players Harper’s age have already reached their peak performances, some have returned to their best levels and others have in fact continued to decline. The only questionable thing Dombrowski said is the idea that what’s happening now is on Harper; Probably more than anyone would like to believe, it depends on the passage of time.

But everything that came after that was nonsense. The scandal, as if Dombrowski had said something false (not at all) or disrespectful to Harper (not really!). He compared Harper to Freddie Freeman. And it should be noted that Dombrowski made a ridiculously accurate comparison. Harper’s career OPS+? 143. Freeman’s? 142. Pretty good comparison!

Let’s also be clear: It would be a fantastic outcome for the Phillies if Harper had a Freddie Freeman-like season in his 30s. Freeman is wrapping up his age-35 season, which means if Harper continues his trajectory, his next three years would look like this in terms of OPS+: 163, 141, 141.

And can you win a World Series with that level of play from the first baseman? Well, the Dodgers did it in 2024. And I went to bed at a decent hour on Monday night, but I imagine Freeman played a crucial role in the overtime of Game 3; Just give me a moment to review it…

Seriously: we all wish our bosses compared us to Freddie Freeman. He didn’t compare Harper to Ryan Howard! Not even with Steve Jeltz! What are we doing here?

It’s worth noting that at no point did he even hint that he wanted to transfer Bryce Harper. In fact, he elaborated on Harper’s importance to the Phillies. No one leaving the press room said anything about Dombrowski’s criticism of Harper or wondered who would play first base for the Phillies next season.

And yet what followed, largely thanks to articles written by people who were not even present in the press room, led to Dombrowski having to clarify, Bryce Harper will express his disappointment for something that Dombrowski hadn’t even said, because many people distrusted the media even more, as if we were a monolithic bloc or as if we were defined primarily by the collection of information rather than by journalism. What an absurd chronology! Thank goodness it only has a tangible effect on how we understand baseball and has not affected all areas of American life.

The only useful thing Dave Dombrowski said about Bryce Harper was that he indicated he is unlikely to play in the outfield again. Last year, In the championship competitions of 15 national teams, it ranked 20th in the ADP (Average roster position) His performance was around that position, with slight variation in each category of the competition. And next season he will remain in the same position. (Freeman came 26th, by the way. Good comparison, Dave!). And next season, he’ll play first base at a level worthy of a future Hall of Famer well into his 30s. In Philadelphia. OK? Everything clear?

Oh yeah, what I wanted to talk about. Dombrowski said a number of things that, along with my other reporting and conversations, are already influencing my vision for 2026.

Let’s start at second base. As readers of this space know, I’m growing tired of the ability to do so Bryson Stott to hit against left-handed pitchers, something that directly influenced how Rob Thomson managed the National League Division Series against the Dodgers. (Clarification: I think there are arguments for and against gorges, mainly because of Stott’s good contact rate against lefties even without hitting production, but I understand why Thomson did it.)

So I asked Dombrowski: Is Stott a regular player at the moment?

“Bryson Stott is a very good player,” Dombrowski said. “Sometimes he hasn’t hit left-handed pitchers as well as we would like, but other times he has. So I think it’s almost a mistake to say anyone is a starting player today, when you look at the big league landscape, it’s 162 games, a grueling schedule really, when you start traveling and doing everything else, so there are very few players who play every day unless they’re stars.”

Dombrowski pointed this out Edmundo Sosa He hits so well against left-handed pitchers that he has to play against right-handed pitchers. It won’t be at shortstop, a position where Trea Turner he just won the batting title, and Dombrowski insisted there were no changes from Turner, no more power, nothing. And no, the Phillies are not going to alternate Bryce Harper, a carbon copy of Freddie Freeman, with Edmundo Sosa. So you can rule out Bryson Stott’s 2026 season given the number of at-bats Sosa is expected to have at second base.

Why not third base? Well, that’s another story. Dombrowski’s praise for it Alec Bohmwho had a fairly average season were discreet. But he was full of praise for it Aidan Miller repeatedly, even indirectly, when I asked if Miller could have a role as Stott’s partner in a rotation system in 2026.

“Well, I think Miller could play second base, but if he comes here, he’s going to be the undisputed starter,” Dombrowski said. “We’re not going to raise him to not play most of the time.”

Sometimes what they say is a puzzle to solve. Miller has impressed for the Phillies. When they promote him, they want him to play every day. They continue to trust Stott at second base. Turner and Harper play shortstop and first base, respectively. And according to a source close to the situation, the Phillies told Miller his future is at third base.

In short: sign Aidan Miller as if he is now a starting Major League player, while his price is still low in draft leagues and auctions without protected players. And in leagues with protected players, when evaluating Alec Bohm, keep in mind that he will most likely be playing for a different team in 2026, in a lineup that doesn’t offer him RBI opportunities due to the on-base ability of players like Kyle SchwarberTurner and Harper.