What the 2007 financial crisis taught a team leader about weathering future recessions

The following is based on a conversation recorded on The Leads Are Sh*t podcast. Click here to watch the full interview.

When the real estate world collapsed in 2007, Ray Ellen was just getting started. Six months later, the mentions dried up overnight. He remembers driving past empty fields where the streets and curbs had already been poured, ghostly subdivisions that never made it past the blueprint.

Vendors showed up at the closing in tears. Buyers were grinning from ear to ear. Title companies began splitting closings so no one had to sit across from each other.

Most officers working today have never experienced a freeze like this. Ellen has. And the lessons he learned then are exactly what officers need now.

‘Balance sheet’ still feels like a recession on paper; prize for winning early

A balanced market feels out of balance when you leave the highs of 2021 behind.

Ellen divides the prizes into three simple parts:

• Comparisons: Find a realistic range, not a dream number.
• Absorption Rate: Are sales accelerating or slowing down from month to month? If they slow down, you can’t price like it’s still 2022.
• Competitive set: Look at what is currently active. If there are seven similar houses and five likely buyers, do you want to be the one to sell first, or the one to lower the price within 60 days?

“If there are four buyers for seven homes, my question to the seller is simple,” says Ellen. “Do you want to be in the top two selling, or the top five chasing the market?”

Do the pricing work of sellers, not for them

Instead of showing up with a printed CMA, Ellen builds it live at the kitchen table.

He pulls up compositions, adjusts functions and lets the salesperson point out the differences. Eventually they end up on a song together.

“Almost every salesperson says, ‘No one has ever done this to me,’” he says. “That’s the thing. It’s their decision, not my opinion.”

It turns awards into a collaboration rather than a debate, and it sticks.

Think 90-day campaigns, not weekend launches

If houses sold within a week, agents could throw everything away in the first few days and move on. That doesn’t work anymore.

Ellen plans a period of 90 to 120 days for each offer:

• Weeks 1–2: Make the property look and feel like a premium product with photos, video and strong copy.
• Weeks 3–4: Broaden the audience, rotate creatives, and reach new eyeballs.
• Weeks 5–8: Change the hooks, refresh the visuals, and adjust the price only in conjunction with a new marketing push.

This way he was able to relist expired houses at the same price and get them sold. The problem is usually not the price. It’s momentum.

Win with questions, not speeches

In softer markets, hard sales fall flat. Ellen has learned to replace statements with questions that help clients talk themselves into the right step.

• “What would it mean to get to your next home sooner?”
• “If prices are higher in three years, would waiting still make sense?”
• “If you divide the equity you give up by ten years in the right home, is the trade-off worth it?”

He laughs and says, “People trust decisions more when they hear them in their own voice.”

Go after the offers that no one else wants

Many agents say they don’t want inventory right now. Ellen’s response is, “Great. I’ll take it.”

Hard mentions are where the real wins are found. Fewer competitors, bigger stories, stronger referrals.

He recently took an expired listing, priced it at the same price, marketed it properly and sold it within days.

“That customer is now telling everyone about it,” he says. “Those testimonials are gold.”

Answer the phone – seriously

Ellen tells a story about a couple who move from Germany. They messaged ten officers. He was the only one who answered.

“It wasn’t my brand or my videos that won them. It was me answering first,” he says.

Responsiveness is the simplest differentiator in real estate, and most still miss it. Second ring recording. Five minute text response. Offers for same-day appointments. That’s the baseline.

Build momentum in the fourth quarter to own the first quarter

Ellen’s big focus this year is finishing strong. His team is running games, chasing every lead and preparing for a fourth quarter that could surpass spring.

“Every great first quarter I’ve ever had came from a busy fourth quarter,” he says. “Momentum Connections.”

The takeaway

The agents who make it through sluggish markets are the ones who can showcase their work, support demand and help families make confident decisions even when things seem uncertain.

That’s what Ellen took from 2007, and that’s why he’s still here to tell the story.