It’s very likely that before this is published, the moves GMs have been lining up in recent weeks have paid off. Ideally, the Leafs will be part of that. But whether they’re already active or not, here’s a simple overview of what a successful trade deadline would look like for Toronto.
End up with two picks in the first two rounds of the 2026 draft
Of the teams currently in the playoffs, only seven currently have a first-round pick in 2026. The Bruins, Islanders and Kraken are the teams that have two picks (sigh, that Bruins pick). That makes the idea of landing the Leafs in the first round in 2026 a tough assignment for Brad Treliving. Getting a first-round pick should absolutely be the goal, but when your matchmaker starts playing, it’s hard to imagine teams like Anaheim, Boston, the New York Islanders or Seattle being ready to move on to the future. (You could also make a strong argument that Anaheim and Seattle want playoff gate revenue and first-round picks to be in play.)
Realistically, the Leafs will have a lot more options to work with if they consider the second round a success story as well. These should be easy to come by, even with strong rental options like McMann and Laughton.
The Leafs, a team that shouldn’t be looking at a rebuild, should place more value on acquiring 2026 picks than 2027-28 picks because there is some hope that a 2026 pick could add to the Leafs’ current competitive window.
And if the Leafs want to be active on the trade market at the draft, the current picks will help as currency in an effort to quickly turn around the roster.
Use all their salary retention slots to maximize trading returns
Assuming the Leafs won’t be overly active at the trade deadline and stick strictly to moving their outstanding unrestricted free agents, the Leafs have the option to lower Calle Jarnkrok’s cap hit to $1.05 million, Scott Laughton’s to $750,000, Bobby McMann’s to under $700,000, and Troy Stecher’s to under $400,000. While cap space may not be the commodity it was under the previous CBA, cap management will matter if teams are serious about loading up, and cheap options for playoff rosters will matter as well. The Leafs need to make money here, even if third-party salary withholding is no longer an issue.
The Leafs could also make their decisions on pending RFAs such as Matias Maccelli and Nick Robertson in the coming days and take advantage of salary retention for those players as well.
If the Leafs are willing to retain over time, there could be a real premium to be collected and the Leafs know full well what that will take as the Laughton and Carlo prices were steep last year. Players like Carlo, Ekman-Larsson, Domi, Roy, Stolarz and Benoit would mean empty cap space for a year or two, but offer the Leafs the opportunity to earn a significant return that could help them in 2026-2027.
Give one player a term
If the Leafs want to be different next season, they need to open up spots in the lineup for new players, and the aforementioned group of Carlo, Ekman-Larsson, Domi, Stolarz, Roy and Benoit represent a chance to do that, as well as less likely options like Morgan Rielly or Dakota Joshua.
Taking a player with term out of the lineup also seems like the best way to bring back a significant return to the Maple Leafs, and if the Leafs fail to close out the trade deadline without any form of optimism on the horizon it will not only be a disappointment for the fans, but also have an impact on how long Auston Matthews wants to stay as a Leaf.
Take on a recovery project
It feels like this is code for signing Andrew Mangiapane from the Oilers and honestly, that seems like the best example out there, so I’m going to run with it.
The Oilers may not have much to offer the Leafs for players like McMann, Laughton, and Ekman-Larsson unless they are willing to move one of their younger players like Isaac Howard or Matthew Savoie, but if the Leafs take on a player like Mangiapane or the Oilers’ soon-to-be UFA Adam Henrique with a modest 50% salary deduction incentive, Calle Jarnkrok, the Oilers can pay a lower price and the Leafs can still do decent business do.
Even prospective UFAs like Henrique or Patrik Laine have something to offer the Leafs in a limited capacity and give the club the opportunity to negotiate contract extensions if they seem like a potential fit. And having NHL-capable players as a return for the Leafs at least benefits a team that still wants to make sure they don’t over-leverage the Bruins and can make a show of pushing for the playoffs.
If the chargeback is unsuccessful, hopefully the return was worth the risk.
Get a younger line-up on March 7
If there’s one drum I’ve been beating all season, it’s that the Leafs need to get back to faster hockey and often the best way to get faster is to get younger legs into the lineup. There is also an advantage for players trying to make their case for the NHL by playing games and even if they could fall flat in the playoffs, they will make the attempt to reach the postseason more fun than the current ascending lineup card.
Whether it’s the Leafs trading for prospects, signing NCAA free agents, or simply creating some opportunities for Marlies players to get their cups of coffee, a youthful bottom six forward and sheltered defensive combination at the bottom makes sense, as does potentially opening the door a little wider for Dennis Hildeby.
If the Leafs can answer these simple questions in the coming weeks, this will be an encouraging trade deadline.
PRESENTED BY THE DAILY FACEOFF TRADE DEADLINE SPECIAL
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