We are 21 rounds into the 2025/26 Premier League season and things are looking very bleak for the teams currently in the relegation zone.
These three clubs – Wolves, Burnley and West Ham United – have a combined winning percentage of just 11.11%, having combined for just seven wins in 63 games.
Wolves look the most doomed. They have just seven points from a possible 63 and for much of this season looked on track to be the worst team in Premier League history.
However, Wolves are unbeaten in three games after beating West Ham 3-0 last weekend, with 1-1 draws against Manchester United and Everton either side of that victory.
Despite this mini-revival, Wolves have just seven points after 21 games. They are 14 points behind Nottingham Forest in 17th place.
Burnley and West Ham are better off than Wolves in terms of total points. They have 13 and 14 points respectively. But neither team has won a game in the last two months.
Burnley have now gone 12 Premier League games without a win, while West Ham’s 2-1 defeat at home to Nottingham Forest on Tuesday evening was their tenth winless match in a row.
Nuno Espirito Santo was expected to be sacked if West Ham lost to Forest, but he will remain in the role for now.
Premier League table after round 21
| MP | W | D | L | GD | Ptn | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14. Tottenham | 21 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 3 | 27 |
| 15. Bournemouth | 21 | 6 | 8 | 7 | −6 | 26 |
| 16. Leeds | 21 | 5 | 7 | 9 | −8 | 22 |
| 17. N Forest | 21 | 6 | 3 | 12 | −13 | 21 |
| 18. Westham | 21 | 3 | 5 | 13 | −21 | 14 |
| 19. Burnley | 21 | 3 | 4 | 14 | −19 | 13 |
| 20. Wolves | 21 | 1 | 4 | 16 | −26 | 7 |
West Ham, Burnley and Wolves will be relegated unless something unprecedented happens
History suggests that even the seven-point gap to West Ham’s safety could be too big to bridge.
According to to elect Data shows that before this season there were 18 instances where a team was at least seven points ahead after 21 games in the Premier League. None of them survived.
Even when we look at the absolute totals, the outlook is bleak. In the history of the Premier League, there have been 27 cases of teams having 14 points or less after 21 games. Only two survived: Southampton in 1993/94 (14 points) and West Brom in 2004/05 (12 points).
Unless one of the bottom three can engineer a recovery that defies Premier League trends, the figures clearly point to Wolves, Burnley and West Ham all being relegated.
Relegation is bad news for any club, but Wolves and Burnley are arguably better placed to absorb such a blow than West Ham.
West Ham’s estimated annual wage bill is around £30 million higher than Burnley’s and also significantly higher than Wolves’.
If West Ham are relegated, their London Stadium will make history as the largest arena to host Championship matches since the league’s rebrand in 2004.
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