One of the most profitable sources of winners is to identify what I call a ‘golden thread’ in shape before it is generally recognized.
I go back many years, I remember that Green Desert was defeated by Sure Blade during his debut in Newmarket. Michael Naughty had left no doubt when I asked him to Green Desert a few weeks earlier that he rated the Colt high, so when Blade defeated him, I knew that the winner had to be useful and he won the next time -out the Coventry Stakes.
This season I identified a golden thread of shape in a starting bet for three -year -olds and up during an evening meeting in Carlisle in May.
The race was won by the Koning Falcon, from Push The Limit, Danger Bay and Tiernan in fourth place.
The winner was second to shift the limit in a Kempton Novice match last October and made an encouraging seasonal return when completing a neck second to Jackknife, now assessed on 105, at EPSOM.
Push de Limiet had returned this season with a neck second to the Spanish voice, in an attempt to admit 7 pounds, in Newmarket, while Danger Bay, six lengths in third place, second was run to Hawkssbill, then fourth in a mentioned race and now rated on 93.
These solid form lines suggested that Tiernan, three -quarters of a length behind Danger Bay in fourth place under an attentive ride, was interesting. An ex-godolphine dropped with an attractive stay pedigree, by Dubawi from a Manduro mare, he made an excellent effort on these insufficient nine furlongs.
The next time he ran a similar race on the same journey in Hamilton, finished four lengths fourth to the aforementioned Danger Bay, before exposing his potential with a dramatic effect in a 1m 3F-mentioned race back in Hamilton, where he remained strong for three-quarters of a third of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length and third of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length of a length length and third of a length length. ending, rated 95 and 99 respectively.
Inevitably the handicapper had his say and admitted him a figure of 101.
With the Falcon from the king to 90, push the limit, which admit 10 pounds to the Falcon of the King in Carlisle, probably running to a figure in the Low 100s.
The son of Ralph Beckett of Le Havre was therefore of great interest of 91, after he was dropped 1 pound of Carlisle, went to 1m 3F for last Friday’s 0-90 at Goodwood. On my form of shape he went into the race with about 10 pounds in his hand and he was well supported, from about 7/1 in the early gamble to 5/2.
We are still waiting to see the Koning Falcon in action again, but he looks very good with 90. Life can be more difficult for Tiernan at 101, although I have no doubt that Mark is an accurate reflection of his talent.
There was a time when Luca Cumani sent his handic app projects to Carlisle to acquire favorable figures … I remember at least two of his Extel Handicap winners after that route … And this starting competition in May was the best race of his kind that I have seen there for many years.
It would not surprise me if the limit pushes, the Falcon and Tiernan of the king all won in pattern company, while colland lines can bear fruit for other horses.
I will be back next week with some insights.
Day for now
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