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Quarterback
Start: Justin Herbert
Justin Herbert’s athletic profile
Justin Herbert enters Week 16 as the season’s QB11. But he hasn’t put together a QB1 performance since Week 9 against the Titans, where he finished as QB4 against Tennessee’s quarterback-friendly defense. After a series of down-and-out friendlies, Herbert is ready to shine again as the Chargers head to Dallas this week to take on the Cowboys.
The Cowboys allow it most fantasy points per game to opposing quarterbacks, a ranking they have maintained for virtually the entire season. In a matchup where Dallas will likely use their stud wide receivers, look for Herbert & Co. to step up the passing game to keep pace. Sooner and often, the former Duck will attack the Cowboys and their 31st-ranked secondary according to Pro football focus.
Honorable Mention: Jared Goff
Sits: Trevor Lawrence
Trevor Lawrence is coming off a historic performance in which he accounted for six total touchdowns en route to a fantasy output of 44.3. Nevertheless, I suggest we bench the former No. 1 pick.
The reason is quite simple: the Denver Broncos defense has been a problem for opposing offenses all season. More specifically, they have the sixth-fewest points per game to opposing quarterbacks. The Broncos are also strong against the run, so Lawrence could have the passing volume to get by as a desperate streaming option. But I would keep expectations heavily in check for T-Law this week.
Honorable Mention: Jordan Love
Run back
Start: Rico Dowdle
Rico Dowdle defeated Chuba Hubbard 16-8 last week to emerge from the Panthers’ Week 14 bye. With the team in the midst of an unlikely battle for the division title, look for head coach Dave Canales to lean on his more explosive back.

Rico Dowdle’s explosive assessment
In Week 16, the Panthers will take on the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. The Bucs allow it ninth most PPR points per game for opposing running backs. Of course, Hubbard is a talented defender in his own right, and he will certainly take that into account by capping Dowdle’s ceiling. But the matchup and its playoff implications point to a comfortable RB2 week for the former undrafted Gamecock.
Honorable Mentions: Quinshon Judkins, Aaron Jones
Sits: Kenneth Walker
K9 enters Week 16 as the RB25 of the season, which is a far cry from the high-end RB2 option many of us drafted him as. Just in case you’re thinking about testing the waters again here in the playoff semifinals, I’m here to talk you off the edge. The talented back’s prime weeks were very far in between. Despite his 118 Explosive Rating (good for fifth in the league) and his 13 Breakaway Runs (sixth), his Snap Share is less than 50%.
Week 16 brings a minus matchup. Kenneth Walker, Zach Charbonnet and the Seahawks take on the Los Angeles Rams on Thursday Night Football. The Rams allowed it least fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. Let’s look elsewhere for production for our flex workplace this week.
Honorable Mentions: Tony Pollard, Kenneth Gainwell


Wide receiver
Start: Justin Jefferson
START YOUR STUDS. If you think J-Jettas is no longer a stud, that’s your business. But let’s be honest: this guy is one of the best receivers in the game right now. After yet another dud with the still very young JJ McCarthy, the relationship is clearly not what we had hoped for. But if you’ve made it this far with the talented former Tiger, Week 16 offers another favorable matchup.
The Vikings remain on the road and will play the New York Giants on Sunday in East Rutherford, NJ. The Giants have been letting receivers have their way all year, making the fourth most PPR points per game by position. As bad as it’s been, I can’t condone benching him unless you’re absolutely stacked. Let’s start with Justin Jefferson, keeping in mind that he is a WR2/flex option at this point.
Honorable Mentions: Ladd McConkey, Ricky Pearsall
Sits: Terry McLaurin
Terry McLaurin has had an up and down season when healthy. Make sure week 16 is of the ‘down’ variety.
This week the Commanders play the Eagles in the first of their two games over the next three weeks. Since about Week 3 of this year, the stud, sophomore cornerback Quinyon Mitchell, has often been asked to track the opposition’s best receiver around the formation. If that’s the case this week, it will be a tall order for McLaurin to have a big day; Mitchell has allowed only a 43% completion rate and a 62.6 passer rating.
Honorable mentions: Emeka Egbuka, Wan’Dale Robinson
Tight end
Start: Darren Waller
Darren Waller is a major threat in the red zone whenever he can get on the field for the Dolphins this year. He’s coming off a monster game against the Steelers in which he caught seven of his eight targets for 66 yards two TDs. In fact, he has had at least one red zone goal in all but two games this year, one of which was the Week 7 game at Cleveland when he suffered the pectoral injury that landed him on IR.
Week 16 gives the 2015 sixth-round pick the best possible matchup. The Cincinnati Bengals have been a punching bag for opposing tight ends all year, allowing the most fantasy points per game to come to the position regardless of scoring format. In PPR scores, the next team, the Pittsburgh Steelers, is close to allowing six points less per game than the Bengals. Start Waller and feel good about your TE spot this week.
Honorable mention: Colby Parkinson
Sits: Dalton Schultz
Dalton Schultz is coming off an impressive performance last week against the Arizona Cardinals, who have allowed the ninth-most points per game to tight ends this year. This week (and next week actually) is a different story. The hapless Raiders may seem like an all systems go matchup, but the Raiders are giving up the fourth fewest points to the TE position. Look for Stroud to attack this defense with his deep group of talented wide receivers, leaving Schultz as little more than a desperate streaming option.
Honorable mention: Jake Ferguson
That’s all for this week. Next stop, CHAMPIONSHIP MATCH!
As always, thanks for reading!
Feel free to hit me up X, Instagramor Blue sky to let me know if you agree or disagree, or to share your own setup dilemmas!
Many successes,
Kyle
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