We Asked Four AIs Whether Bitcoin (BTC) Will Crash to $50,000 Before the End of 2025

ChatGPT estimated the chance of such a scenario at less than 15%.

Some analysts and community members have started waving the white flag, signaling the start of the bear market. We turned to four of the most popular AI chatbots to determine whether a bigger dip to $50,000 is in store.

It seems unlikely

According to ChatGPT, BTC has entered a bearish phase within a larger bull cycle. That said, the report claimed that a crash to $50,000 before the end of 2025 is unexpected and would require “a major negative catalyst.” Such a shock would be a recession, the fallout from a leading crypto exchange (similar to what happened with FTX in 2022), and other factors.

The chatbot stated that double-digit corrections are normal in bull markets, noting that the current cycle is stronger than the previous one due to the strong demand created by the spot BTC ETFs.

In conclusion, ChatGPT estimates that the chance of a collapse to $50,000 on New Year’s Eve is between 5% and 15%. The highest probability is that the price will trade between $70,000 and $110,000, while the chance of a new rally above $120,000 is 30% – 40%.

Grok argued that the plunge to such a low level is possible, but unlikely based on current analyst consensus, historical patterns and macroeconomic tailwinds.

“A drop to $50,000 would require a further decline of ~47% from current levels, which would be an extreme event even for Bitcoin’s volatile history. While risks exist, most forecasts point to stabilization or upside by December 31, 2025,” it added.

It claimed that the potential cut in US interest rates could fuel the rebound that bulls are waiting for. The next FOMC meeting is scheduled for December 10. Just a few weeks ago the chances of a 0.25% rate cut were 90%, but currently the ‘no change’ option is estimated at 51%.

Other predictions

Perplexity shared a similar statement, viewing such a collapse as “a lower probability scenario.” It suggested that BTC would continue trading above $85,000 until the end of the year, and even speculated that the price could rise to $190,000 in bullish cases.

“A Bitcoin crash to $50,000 before the end of 2025 is not the most likely outcome, but it remains a plausible downside risk if adverse macroeconomic or regulatory events worsen. Current technical and fundamental analysis generally points to a higher base level near $85,000-$100,000, with strong long-term bullish momentum overall,” it summarized.

Last but not least, we asked the opinion of Google’s Gemini. It stated that a major banking crisis, a rise in interest rates in the United States or a large-scale security exploit on a major exchange could trigger a drop of up to $50,000.

On the other hand, bullish factors such as institutional adoption following the introduction of spot BTC ETFs and the increasing acceptance of the asset as digital gold make this unlikely.