Water security: treaties to prevent conflict in the Horn of Africa

• In the Horn of Africa, the conflict over water security continues.
• The Nile River basin, which covers nearly a dozen countries, remains the center of water security flashpoints in the region.
• As part of countermeasures, AU leaders will discuss water at the 2026 summit.

Very often, water security in the Horn of Africa means the difference between regional stability, conflict or even outright war. Although there are other reasons, water security is at the heart of the increasing tensions in the Horn of Africa, despite the treaties.

“The risk of hostilities involving Ethiopia and neighboring Eritrea remains high, three years after the last major war in the region,” notes the International Crisis Group (ICG) regarding the heated tensions in the Tigray region.

In the recent ICG report entitled ‘Ethiopia, Eritrea and Tigray: a powder keg in the Horn of Africa’, the think tank warns that the potential of another war (after the 2022 peace deal) in the region is almost imminent, without immediate intervention.

ICG notes that while Ethiopia and Eritrea are in conflict, Sudan accuses Tigray, its enemy from the last war, of making alliances with Eritrea, which is building close ties with Egypt, Sudan’s biggest rival, for no other reason than the waters of the Nile.

So it all comes down to water safety in the region; war is brewing, fueled by water safety. It wasn’t always that way; “For thousands of years, the Nile countries have worked together to overcome problems across the basin so that the resource could be harnessed for the benefit of future generations,” explains the East Africa Journal for Environment and Natural Resources.

However, “2026 has begun in Africa with an escalation of water-induced climate-related crises,” it notes in its analysis titled ‘Conflicts and Treaty on the Nile Basin’. A critical review.’ The analysis indicates that; “The existing bilateral agreement governing the distribution of water among nations allocates most of the Nile’s flow to Egypt and the remaining part to Sudan, leaving the other nations that make up the Nile River basin deprived of certain shares.”

This entails the looming conflict (or peace) that has been brewing for years, ever since Ethiopia announced plans for the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD). However, with its inauguration last year, GERD, known as the most ambitious infrastructure undertaking on the Blue Nile, downstream neighbors Egypt and Sudan, has once again raised the alarm amid fears the dam will endanger their water security.

“The tension level is relatively high at the moment,” confirms Magnus Taylor, deputy director of the Horn of Africa conflict prevention think tank at the International Crisis Group.

“Egypt fears that GERD will challenge both its practical control over Nile waters and its broader political hegemony over the Nile Basin,” he reasons.

To maintain and increase its influence in the region, and more specifically, to secure support against GERD, the analyst says Egypt has supported the Sudanese forces in the ongoing war in the country. With this goal in mind, Egypt is also pursuing Eritrea and offering security support to Somalia, among other things. So sides have been taken and the guns are raised and they may very well be used, ‘without immediate intervention’, as the analysis warns.

Also read: Shadows of conflict loom over EACOP as construction nears end

Water safety: AU makes water the center of the top

It is no wonder that the African Union (AU) has decided to put water at the heart of this year’s summit. The Summit rightly has as its theme: “Ensuring sustainable water availability and safe sanitation to achieve the goals of Agenda 2063.”

According to the letter from the AU summit; “The 39th Ordinary Session of the Assembly of Heads of State and Government of the African Union has elevated water and sanitation to a strategic continental priority for 2026.”

It further claims; “By designating water and sanitation as the theme of the year, the African Union has placed water security at the highest political level… and recognized it as a foundation for economic transformation, climate resilience, regional integration and sustainable development.”

It should be noted that, as the World Bank explains, across Africa, 90 percent of surface water is in transboundary river basins and requires transboundary cooperation or treaties to manage. This high level of political recognition of water as “a pillar of life and sustainability,” as the AU puts it, falls just short of the more blunt description used by analysts who warn that “water has become one of the most strategic and contested resources of the 21st century.”

Sanusha Naidu from the Institute for Global Dialogue explains it clearly; “but water is becoming a commodified and secured resource. It is a humanitarian crisis, a climate crisis and increasingly a peace and security issue.”

Tensions are exacerbated by the impact of climate change on this limited resource. The World Meteorological Organization says: “…climate variability is putting pressure on water systems, especially those with poor governance… and unequal access.”

Another analyst, Dhesigen Naidoo, writing for the Institute for Security Studies, points out that; “More than 60 percent of Africans rely on rain-fed agriculture, making them highly sensitive to water fluctuations. Water scarcity has been linked to food insecurity, displacement and the recruitment of armed group members.”

The analyst underlines the fact that “…there are increasing links between environmental degradation and insecurity.” More to our point; “In the Horn of Africa, water scarcity coincides with uprisings by extremist groups such as Boko Haram and Al-Shabab,” the analyst underlines the threats.

The Nile, which flows through ten river basin countries, is the most crucial water channel in the northwestern region of Africa. It is the basis of life and conflict. Conflicts between riparian countries dependent on this shared freshwater source have increased due to the river’s decline and water scarcity issues in the basin.

Treaties on water security in the Horn of Africa

You mention the Nile and Egypt comes to mind. The association has been under pressure for centuries; The Nile is Egypt and Egypt is the Nile; the two have indeed become synonymous… until you wake up and realize that there are ten other countries through which the Nile, the longest river in the world, flows.

The least of these was Ethiopia, where 86 percent of the Nile water comes from. But despite this enormous water supply, less than 55 percent of Ethiopia, a country of 130 million people, has access to electricity.

This fundamental example of how the other nine countries sharing the Nile should also use it is the basis of all treaties. Over the years, several international and regional treaties have been signed to prevent and safeguard conflict sustainable management of the Nile basin.

The bilateral treaties on the Nile consist of colonial-era agreements and post-colonial treaties. They date back to the 1929 exchange of notes between Egypt and Britain and the 1959 agreement between Egypt and Sudan. Postcolonial agreements include the 1999 The Nile Basin Initiative (NBI) and most recently the Nile Basin Cooperative Framework Agreement.

Much remains to be decided about the ongoing conflict and whether the AU’s recognition of water security will prevent a potential war in the Horn of Africa.