Entering 2024, expectations were high for Jose Ferrer and the kind of breakthrough he could have after a strong 2024 season in which he posted a 3.38 ERA and 2.76 FIP over 32 innings. While his season didn’t start well, with an ERA above 5 through the first half of 2025, he showed signs of a turnaround, including a 3.26 FIP and elite strike-throwing ability. He indeed found another gear in the second half of the year, posting a 2.16 ERA in July and 1.46 in August, and finished the second half with a 2.64 FIP and 3.54 ERA after a few rough outings in September.
Losing Kyle Finnegan at the trade deadline was a tough blow to the Nats’ bullpen as a whole, but when it came to the closer position, Ferrer held down the spot admirably, saving 11 games and losing just one in the two months following the trade deadline. The end result in 2025 was a 4.48 ERA and 1.4 fWAR for Ferrer, not quite where fans hoped he would end up, but again with impressive underlying numbers, such as a 3.03 FIP and walks per 9 under 2 for the second year in a row.
There are many reasons why I believe 2026 is the year Jose Ferrer turns himself from a shaky reliever with great stuff into one of the most dominant closers in baseball. For starters, the stuff he has is pure dirt, like his sinker, which has him sitting at 97 MPH and can run into triple digits, as well as a changeup with similar moves but a whole 10 MPH slower.
Ferrer’s sinker is the reason he is one of the best pitchers in baseball at keeping the ball on the ground, as his 64.3% groundball rate was in the 99th percentile in the MLB. Part of the reason Ferrer’s FIP is consistently lower than his ERA is that he has had an incredibly sloppy infield defense behind him his entire career, something that will hopefully be improved by new field coordinator Tyler Smarslok, who took the Marlins from 29th to 14th in Miami infield defense in one year.
Another reason I’m so high on Ferrer is his ability to limit free passes, as he ranked in the 90th percentile or better in walk rate for the second straight season in 2025. Ferrer doesn’t get a ton of chases on his pitches, as he’s in the 51st percentile in that department, which makes it more impressive that someone with his stuff can drive it and throw for strikes as often as he can. Relievers can be extremely volatile, especially those who give up a lot of catches and walks, but Ferrer can limit both of these at exceptional rates, giving him a very high floor for a reliever and an equally high ceiling.
The third reason, and perhaps the most important, that I’m so excited about Ferrer entering 2026 is that he has a new pitching coach who can fully maximize his potential in Simon Mathews. While Jim Hickey doesn’t have a bad baseball mind and certainly played a role in getting Ferrer to where he is today, Mathews brings knowledge to this organization that no one has had before and can help Ferrer reach that next level he is so close to.
What does Ferrer need to work on to reach his full potential next season? While it may be a bit backwards, I think throwing fewer strikes would actually be beneficial to Ferrer’s success. By throwing more balls and risking more walks, Ferrer would see benefits such as increased strikeouts and less hard contact, as hitters can’t be in full attack mode knowing Ferrer is going to rush the zone.
Ferrer currently throws his sinker much more than his changeup and slider, 71% of the time in 2025, and while it’s a devastating pitch, it makes him somewhat predictable to hit against, especially for right-handed hitters, who hit .323 against him compared to left-handed hitters, who hit .186. An increase in the use of Ferrer’s slider and changeup, both great pursuit throws, each with a whiff rate of over 40%, would keep hitters more off balance against him, increasing his strikeout numbers and decreasing his hard hit percentage.
While 2025 wasn’t quite the breakout year for Ferrer that we thought it would be, the makings of one of the best closers in baseball are still there, and with a new coaching staff in town, it could be unlocked in 2026. With any luck, there will be plenty of leads to protect and games to win for Ferrer as the Nationals closer next season.
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