was never exactly a Derby-winning factory

Kentucky Derby Radar

As we enter the last weekend of February, the Road to the Kentucky Derby begins its most aggressive turn. This Saturday Rebel deployment at Oaklawn and the Fountain of Youth bee Gulf Stream it’s not just preliminary races; they are litmus tests for a new era of racing.

The Derby remains the undisputed ‘highlight’ of American racing, but the road map to Churchill Downs has been resurfaced. If you’re still handicapping using the “old methods” of horse racing, you’re probably chasing ghosts. From the death of the Dosage Index to the rise of the ‘Apollo beaters’, the game has fundamentally changed.

The myth of the two-year foundation

For more than a century, the ‘Curse of Apollo’ was the sport’s most formidable trait: since 1882, no horse had won the Derby without racing at the age of two. Then came To justify in 2018, followed by Magician in 2023. These are not outliers; they are a signal.

The Breeders’ Cup Youth was never quite a Derby-winning factory, but has produced two winners: Street Sense and Nyquist. But going that fast late in the two-year-old year takes a physical and mental toll. Today’s trainers are more patient and the modern Thoroughbred is bred for unique performance. We see that you don’t need a deep base of youthful starts to win; you just need the talent and “fight” to peak at exactly the right time.

Dosage and numbers: statistics in the rearview mirror

Remember when we had a horse with a Dosage index above 4.00? In modern times, that conversation has all but disappeared. With horses like American Pharaoh (4.33) And Justify (4.20) Breaking these ceilings has recalibrated the relationship between speed and endurance.

The truth is that speed figures and minimums don’t win the Derby.difficulties do. On any given Saturday, a statistic is just a number until a horse likes it Rich strike or Mine that bird reminds us that the best ‘journey’ beats the best ‘song’ every time. I want the horse that has looked the problems in the eye and fought through them bravely, not the horse that had a ‘perfect’ path to the winner’s circle.

Evidence of the “One-Day Peak”

To further illustrate how the ‘best horse’ doesn’t always win – or how the effort of the Derby can take everything a horse has – look at the winners of the past 30 years who never won another race after their flowers were draped at Churchill:

• Sharpening Stone (1996): Retired due to injury just five days after his victory.
• Fusaichi Pegasus (2000): The multimillion-dollar “superhorse” has never found the winner’s circle again in three consecutive starts.
• Monarchos (2001): Clocked the second-fastest Derby ever (1:59.97), but then went 0-for-3.
• Barbara (2006): Tragically injured in the Preakness; his dominant Derby was his last completed race.
• My That Bird (2009): The 50-1 legend went 0-for-9 after his shocker in the dirt.
• Supersaver (2010): Winless in two starts after Todd Pletcher got his first Derby.
• Bol (2013): The favorite who seemed like a superstar, but went 0-for-4 after his victory.
• Always Dreaming (2017): Dominated the Derby, but ended his career with a five-race losing streak.
• Country house (2019): Awarded the win via DQ; never raced again due to health problems.
• Rich Strike (2022): The 80-1 wondermaker went winless in six straight starts before retiring.

The collateral damage of the points system

Although the current points system offers a clear ‘win and you do’ structure, it has a number of serious side effects:

• The filly ceiling: It’s harder than ever for a filly to compete against the boys. Because Oaks points do not count towards the Derby, a truly special filly must beat the colts twice to get through the gate.
• The sprint ban: By design, the system excludes sprinters. This has fundamentally changed the pace of the Derby, often removing the ‘rabbit’ that used to make for a thrilling first quarter.
• The double peak: Horses now have to peak twice: once to secure the points and again five weeks later. Finding the horse that is coming to a high point, rather than someone who just used their “best” race to qualify, is the key to finding value.

The heavy hitters: Baffert and Brown

You can never count down Bob Baffert. Whether he’s under fire or under the radar, he’s dangerous with everything he puts into the gate. He knows how to get a horse to go 1.5 miles, regardless of the obstacles he encounters.

On the other side of the coin, yes Chad Brown. He is quietly one of the best ever to get his horses to the top of the Derby without winning his yet. I think there’s more than one with his name on it and it looks loaded this year. His horses are trained to peak on that first Saturday in May, and it feels like his name is already engraved on a trophy – it’s just a matter of which year.

The Wood Memorial: respect the timing

There is a story that the Wooden memorial has lost its credibility as a serious Derby prep. That’s nonsense. The timing and distance are perfect and over time it has had its share of winners. The recent lack of winners probably has more to do with the sheer number of points races available elsewhere than at the Wood Memorial itself.

This Weekend’s Watchlist: Search for ‘Fight’

Building on the philosophy of looking for the horse that “faces adversity bravely” and “comes to a head,” here are the top contenders for this weekend’s big preparations.

The Rebel Deployment (Oaklawn Park)

• Silent tactics (Mark Casse): Showed real grit in the Southwest Stakes, passing nine horses in the final stretch. Does he need a perfect journey and is he ready for it?
• Blackout time (Kenny McPeek): Represents the value of a horse that has not peaked too early. McPeek is a master at navigating the “electric atmosphere” with long shots.
• Litmus test (Bob Baffert): Coming into what appears to be a career effort so far, Baffert is exemplary in using Oaklawn Park to launch Derby contenders.

The Fountain of Youth (Gulfstream Park)

• Napoleon Solo (Chad Summers): An undefeated G1 winner making his season debut. He’s the ultimate modern “Apollo” archetype: pure talent trying to overcome a layoff and limited starts even though he walked on two.
• Bravaro (Saffie Joseph Jr.): A gritty contender who made a huge amount of money despite being caught late last time. Did he learn from that setback?
• Loneliness (Saffie Joseph Jr.): Tried to take his speed over a distance for the first time in a race at key points while another speed was registered.

Category	Statistics/Fact
The Apollo Breakers	Justify (2018) And Magician (2023) are the only winners since 1882 without 2YO starts.
Dosage Reality	Since 2000, more than half of the winners had a dosage index of 3.00 or higher.
Field size factor	The field of twenty horses is the ultimate ‘elusive’. The “best trip” (Horse, Trainer, Jockey) wins as much or more than the ‘best horse’.
The 50-point club	The winner of the Rebel or Fountain of Youth deserves 50 pointsessentially locking their place in the gate.

Kentucky Derby Radar:

My early list is usually short. Paladin looks like a real Kentucky Derby horse and reminds me of Sierra Leone. The nice thing about him is that he doesn’t share Sierra Leone’s idiosyncrasies, which sometimes put him behind the eight ball and cost him when it counted. Renegade is making good progress and you want to see a forward-moving horse improve with every start. Canoletto is a one-time winner in his debut at a mile. He is scheduled for his next start, his first around two turns in the Tampa Bay Derby. This goes against a lot of what I’m looking for, but we have to adapt to today’s game and talent is talent. This colt seemed particularly talented to me.